Man City have signed deadliest forward amid Havertz comparison

According to xG, Man City new boy Omar Marmoush is the best finisher in Europe

Manchester City have spent £59m on Omar Marmoush and it’s little wonder; they are desperate for another finisher.

We have looked at Europe’s top five leagues – so that means there’s no 2025 top scorer Viktor Gyokeres, though his numbers would put him in the Matheus Cunha bracket here – and the players who have the biggest differential between the goals they should have scored and their actual total…

1) Omar Marmoush (Eintracht Frankfurt and now Manchester City)

Total xG in 24/25: 8.8

Actual league goals in 24/25: 15

Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane and Robert Lewandowski have all scored more league goals than Marmoush in 2024/25, but two of that quartet are underperforming on their xG, while Salah is pretty close to bang on after a slow start to 2025. Kane has scored 16 goals from 13 xG but those numbers are poor in comparison with new £59m City signing Marmoush.

For comparison, the Egyptian has scored 15 Bundesliga goals from only marginally better chances than Kai Havertz has been handed in the Premier League for Arsenal. And Kai Havertz has definitely not scored 15 goals.

READ: Premier League five-year net spend table: Man City now above Liverpool

2) Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)

Total xG in 24/25: 6.8

Actual league goals in 24/25: 13

Newcastle United are among several clubs reported to be interested in Mbeumo, who has had a phenomenal season for Brentford. He is said to be one of four strikers who Manchester United may well target in this January window, along with another player on this list.

The Newcastle link is an interesting one; Mbeumo has scored 13 from an xG of 6.8, while Anthony Gordon has scored six goals from an xG of 7.2. Maths fans, you can see who has been the better finisher this season.

3) Marcus Thuram (Inter)

Total xG in 24/25: 7.0

Actual league goals in 24/25: 13

Linked with Arsenal this week as an alternative to Gyokeres and Benjamin Sesko is Thuram, whose goals have actually dried up somewhat in recent weeks, but he has already matched last season’s 13-goal Serie A total. Not bad for a player who does not take penalties.

4) Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest)

Total xG in 24/25: 8.1

Actual league goals in 24/25: 14

He has scored with 31% of his shots. Dominic Solanke and Havertz have both had a better standard of chances. He has been a phenomenon. We wonder whether Pep Guardiola considered it for just a minute…

5) Matheus Cunha (Wolves)

Total xG in 24/25: 4.6

Actual league goals in 24/25: 10

This is why Wolves are quoting suitors £80m in the knowledge that he is still their best chance of survival and if they are forced to sell – to Arsenal or Nottingham Forest – they want to be able to replace him with three or four players.

Dominik Szoboszlai has scored twice from very similar value chances. Let that sink in.

6) Mateo Retegui (Atalanta)

Total xG in 24/25: 9.1

Actual league goals in 24/25: 14

Scored seven goals for Genoa last season, moved to Atalanta for less than £20m and has this season scored a Serie A goal every 76 minutes to top the scorers chart ahead of Thuram. We give him until the end of the season before he is linked with Arsenal.

7) Sandro Ramirez (Las Palmas)

Total xG in 24/25: 2.2

Actual league goals in 24/25: 7

Yes it’s the Sandro Ramirez who scored zero goals in eight Premier League games for Everton. No it doesn’t make sense.

8) Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund)

Total xG in 24/25: 2.4

Actual league goals in 24/25: 7

Manchester United are said to be ‘seriously interested’ in the former Manchester City youngster, who is also of interest to Chelsea. If he has been watching Jadon Sancho closely, he will skip the Red part.

9) Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen)

Total xG in 24/25: 7.6

Actual league goals in 24/25: 12

He has scored with 32% of his shots this season, which is marginally better than even Chris Wood. His age – a football ancient 29 – means he is not on the radar of many European super-clubs, which is probably excellent news for Xabi Alonso, who has enjoyed the unexpected bonus of some fine Schick form in the absence of the injured Victor Boniface.

10) Ayoze Perez (Villarreal)

Total xG in 24/25: 3.9

Actual league goals in 24/25: 8

It remains astonishing that Leicester City paid £30m for Perez five years ago. But not quite as astonishing as Perez scoring eight La Liga goals this season despite starting only seven games for a team genuinely fighting for a Champions League place.

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