Champions League: who’s through, who’s out and who needs what in final fixtures?

IN THE AUTOMATIC SPOTS

1 Liverpool: Pts 21 GD+13

Guaranteed a place in the last 16 and a top-two finish. Final fixture: PSV (a)

2 Barcelona: Pts 18 GD+15

Guaranteed a place in the last 16. Final fixture: Atalanta (h)

3 Arsenal: Pts 16 GD+12

Need a point to guarantee a last-16 spot but goal difference means only an unlikely set of results would push them out of the top eight if they lost. Every club from Arsenal down to Celtic in 18th inclusive are guaranteed a playoff place if they fail to finish in the top eight. Final fixture: Girona (a)

4 Inter: Pts 16 GD+7

Require a draw to be sure of going through automatically. Final fixture: Monaco (h)

5 Atlético Madrid: Pts 15 GD+5

A win would make a top-eight finish certain. They face one of the nine clubs who have been eliminated. Final fixture: RB Salzburg (a)

6 Milan: Pts 15 GD+4

Need a victory to be sure of going through automatically. Final fixture: Dinamo Zagreb (a)

7 Atalanta: Pts 14 GD+14

Also require a win to guarantee a place in the last 16. Final fixture: Barcelona (a)

8 Bayer Leverkusen: Pts 13 GD+6

Could be bumped out of the top eight even if they win because five other teams are on 13 points, meaning it could boil down to goal difference. And if goal difference can’t separate teams then it comes down to, in this order: higher number of goals scored, higher number of away goals scored, higher number of wins, higher number of away wins in the league phase. Leverkusen’s next opponents have been eliminated. Final fixture: Sparta Prague (h)

View image in fullscreen Bayer Leverkusen in action at Atlético Madrid, where they lost 2-1. Photograph: Bagu Blanco/Pressinphoto/Shutterstock

IN THE PLAYOFF SPOTS

9 Aston Villa: Pts 13 GD+5

Defeat at Monaco means even victory may not push them into the top eight. They face a team whose one Champions League defeat came – heavily – at Dortmund. Final fixture: Celtic (h)

10 Monaco: Pts 13 GD+3

Will surely need to win at higher-placed opponents to stand a chance of going through automatically. Final fixture: Inter (a)

11 Feyenoord: Pts 13 GD+2

Face the team immediately below them, whose only defeat since 17 September was at Liverpool on Tuesday. Final fixture: Lille (a)

12 Lille: Pts 13 GD+2

An identical record to Feyenoord’s, though the Dutch team have scored six more goals. Final fixture: Feyenoord (h)

13 Brest: Pts 13 GD+2

Can the French club pull off another shock and beat the champions? Even then, would it push them into the top eight? Final fixture: Real Madrid (h)

14 Borussia Dortmund: Pts 12 GD+8

Last season’s beaten finalists, who sacked Nuri Sahin on Wednesday, will need a large number of results to go their way to sneak into the last eight automatically. Final fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk (h)

15 Bayern Munich: Pts 12 GD+6

Face a team who have lost seven from seven but Vincent Kompany’s side are likely to end up with a playoff after three defeats. Final fixture: Slovan Bratislava (h)

16 Real Madrid: Pts 12 GD+5

Record winners are also staring at the playoffs. They occupy the last of the eight seeded playoff spots – the teams who finish ninth to 16th will face teams placed 17th to 24th. Final fixture: Brest (a)

View image in fullscreen Real Madrid are staring at the playoffs despite the firepower of Vinícius Júnior (left) and Kylian Mbappé. Photograph: Bagu Blanco/Pressinphoto/Shutterstock

17 Juventus: Pts 12 GD+4

One of nine former champions in the playoff spots. They face another. The full list: Villa, Feyenoord, Dortmund, Bayern, Madrid, Juventus, Celtic, PSV and Benfica. Final fixture: Benfica (h)

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18 Celtic: Pts 12 GD+1

Most recent appearance in the last 16 came in 2012-13. Could theoretically break into the top eight but, more realistically, can they secure a seeded playoff berth? Final fixture: Aston Villa (a)

19 PSV: Pts 11 GD+3

A draw would guarantee a playoff spot but only a strange set of results would push them out of the top 24 even if they lose to the team with the only 100% record. Final fixture: Liverpool (h)

20 Club Brugge: Pts 11 GD-2

A point would end any doubt over a playoff place and eliminate their opponents, the 2023 champions. At home they have drawn with Juventus and beaten Villa. Final fixture: Manchester City (a)

21 Benfica: Pts 10 GD+2

Another team who know a point would guarantee a playoff. Final fixture: Juventus (a)

22 Paris Saint-Germain: Pts 10 GD+2

Comeback against Manchester City means a draw will realistically be enough for a playoff. Only results including an 11-goal win for Dinamo Zagreb over Milan could eliminate PSG if they get a point. Final fixture: Stuttgart (a)

View image in fullscreen Joy for PSG’s Bradley Barcola after his goal in the comeback win at home to Manchester City. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

23 Sporting: Pts 10 GD+1

Draw at home to eliminated opponents would make sure of a playoff. Final fixture: Bologna (h)

24 Stuttgart: Pts 10 GD-1

Realistically, if not mathematically, will be in the playoffs if they draw. Only a crazily big Zagreb win at home to Milan could threaten that. All of which means a Stuttgart draw at home to PSG would suit both clubs. Final fixture: PSG (h)

OUTSIDE THE PLAYOFF SPOTS

25 Manchester City: Pts 8 GD+2

In an unimaginable position. A win would secure a playoff but any other result will send them out. Final fixture: Brugge (h)

26 Dinamo Zagreb: Pts 8 GD-8

Must win to stand a chance of a playoff. Final fixture: Milan (h)

27 Shakhtar Donetsk: Pts 7 GD-6

Also must win keep alive playoff hopes. Final fixture: Dortmund (a)

28-36 NINE ELIMINATED CLUBS

Bologna, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, RB Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys.

HOW THE PLAYOFFS WILL WORK

The teams placed ninth to 16th will be seeded and will face a team placed 17th to 24th, with the seeded clubs at home for the second leg.

When the draw is made on Friday 31 January clubs will have two possible opponents: ninth and 10th will play either 23rd or 24th; 11th and 12th will play 21st or 22nd, 13th and 14th will play 19th or 20th; 15th and 16th will play 17th or 18th.

From there paths can be plotted. Liverpool, by finishing first or second, know, for example, that they will face one of the teams who finished 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Uefa’s website, using the existing placings, shows how it will work.

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