Commanders Wildcard Watch - Week 18 2024 - Potential matchups and paths to the NFC Conference Championship

Washington did it; the Commanders are in the playoffs!

The only questions that remain are:

Will the Commanders be the 6th or 7th seed in the NFC?

Who will they play against on Super Wildcard Weekend?

How many games will they win in the playoffs?

Let me be clear: we’re not contemplating ‘one and done’ in this article. There’s no use talking about a first-round loss. We don’t care who we play next weekend.

Anyone.

Anywhere.

Anytime.

Here, we will discuss the possible paths from the Wildcard round to the NFC Championship, so this article will be talking about winning playoff games. We won’t waste time contemplating losses.

Question 1 - Will the Commanders be the 6th or 7th seed in the NFC?

The 6th seed is preferable to the 7th seed, not so much because of the opponent in the wildcard round, but because it holds out the possibility that Washington could be playing the 4th or 5th seed in the second (divisional) round instead of having to face the #1 seed fresh off a bye week.

Washington controls the outcome here, and winning on Sunday makes it easy.

Beat the Cowboys and the Commanders are the 6th seed in the NFC.

and the Commanders are the in the NFC. If Washington loses to Dallas, then the Commanders will drop to the 7th seed unless the Packers also lose to the Bears.

Question 2 - Who will they play against on Super Wildcard Weekend?

As the 7th seed

As the 7th seed, Washington’s path would be absolutely clear: On Super Wildcard Weekend, Washington would travel to Philly to beat the Eagles again.

As the 6th seed

LA Rams ; or

; or TB Buccaneers

As the 6th seed Washington will play the #3 seed in the NFC in the first game of the playoffs. Currently, that is the NFC West champion LA Rams, but if on Sunday this week, the Rams lose and the (current) #4 seed Buccaneers win, then they will swap positions.

In short, Washington will play either the Rams or the Buccaneers, but we won’t know which team will be the opponent until Sunday afternoon (If the Buccaneers lose) or Sunday evening (if the Bucs win and we have to wait for the result of the Rams game).

The Packers

If Washington is the 6th seed, then the Packers will be the 7th seed and will play the #2 seed Eagles on Super Wildcard Weekend.

Who would the Commanders play in the Divisional Round?

After winning on Super Wildcard Weekend, who would the 7th seed Commanders play next?

Vikings

Lions

In the Divisional Round, Washington would play the #1 seed (the winner of SNF Vikings - Lions game) on the road.

After winning on Super Wildcard Weekend, who would the 6th seeded Commanders play next?

If the Eagles beat the Packers, then Washington will play the #1 seed — that is, the the winner of the Sunday Night Football Game between the Vikings and Lions.

If GB beats Philly, Washington will play the winner of 4th vs 5th seed game.

The 4th seed will be the champion of either the NFC West ( Rams ) or NFC South ( Buccaneers or Falcons ). The Rams seem most likely to be the 4th seed; the Falcons the least likely.

will be the champion of either the NFC West ( ) or NFC South ( or ). The Rams seem most likely to be the 4th seed; the Falcons the least likely. The 5th seed will be the loser of the Sunday Night Football Game between the Vikings and Lions.

Two paths to the same place

The divisional round sees Washington playing either the Lions or Vikings — barring an unexpected win in the wildcard round by the NFC South winner (Bucs or Falcons).

It would be unwieldy to attempt to show every possible pairing for even the Super Wildcard Weekend, and far too complex to discuss every potential conference championship pairing in this article.

If you are interested in playing around with the different seeding scenarios that can arise from the Week 18 games, you may want to try your hand at the ESPN Playoff Machine:

Here, I will simply show you three example brackets that illustrate different ways that Washington can get from the 6th or 7th seed to the NFC Championship game.

Reaching the NFCC game always requires the Commanders to win two games against higher-seeded teams, but, as I said at the top, we’re not here to talk about how to lose games — we are here to talk about paths to the NFC Championship for the Washington Commanders.

Here are two possible paths — one from the 6th seed and one from the 7th seed — to the NFC Championship game:

6th seeded Commanders go to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship

Here, I have the most likely matchup for the Commanders on Super Wildcard Weekend; that is, as the 6th seed traveling to LA to play the Rams in SoFi Stadium.

In this bracket, I also have the 2nd seed Eagles beating the 7th seed Packers and the 5th seed from the NFC North to reach the NFC Championship game at home.

With the Packers losing in the first round, the 6th seed Commanders have to play the highest-seeded team in the divisional round and NFC Championship, which, in this case, means taking on the #1 and #2 seeds.

From a seeding standpoint, this is the toughest row to hoe, as it requires the Commanders to play the top 3 seeds in the NFC.

7th seed Commanders go to Tampa Bay for the NFC Championship

Here, as the 7th seed, Washington has no choice but to face the #1 and #2 seeds in order to reach the NFCC game, winning on the road in Philly and Detroit.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, beat the 5th seed Vikings in Tampa Bay before a home victory over the Packers, who upset the Rams in the wildcard round.

Washington travels to Tampa Bay in a re-match of the season’s opening game.

Dan Quinn wants a home playoff game; how would that happen?

There is only one path to a home playoff game for Washington in January: the 7th seed Packers and 6th seed Commanders each win two games and meet in the NFCC.

[T]he No. 7 team, which in this case would be the Green Bay Packers, would have to beat the No. 2 and No. 1 seeds. That means the Eagles, Detroit Lions and Vikings — all viewed as Super Bowl contenders — would have to lose. Still, Quinn would rather leave the door open for the possibility than lose, get bumped down to the No. 7 seed and have to travel for each round of the postseason. “Anybody...who had been at that game Sunday night [knows] that was home field advantage,” Quinn said. “It was. And it was loud, and it was intense, and it was awesome. That’s the type of support that when you feel it, you know it.”

Packers come to Washington for the NFC Championship

Again, there is only one path to a home playoff game for the Commanders.

The 7th seed Packers have to beat the #2 Eagles and the top-seeded team (Vikings or Lions, whichever wins the NFC North title on Sunday Night Football).

The 6th seed Commanders have to beat the #3 seed on Super Wildcard Weekend, and then beat either the 4th or 5th seed team to reach the NFC Championship game.

This is clearly the most attractive path that Washington could hope for, and it shows why Dan Quinn wants to beat Dallas this week and retain the #6 seed, no matter how slim the odds are that this bracket ever becomes manifest.

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