Concern for the Crows? The stats they should worry about

Last season, Adelaide finished top of the AFL ladder with 18 wins and just five losses, and was third in the league for points scored.

In their first three weeks of 2025, the Crows piled on scores of 135, 161, and 114 for three impressive wins. After three weeks in 2026? One win, two losses, and they haven't broken 100 points so far this season.

In their loss to the Cats on Thursday night, the Crows went down by just eight points, but stats show the margin should have been much greater.

According to Champion Data, the Cats scored just 68 points from 115 expected points for a differential of -47, meaning they kicked eight goals below what was expected, taking into account where the shots were taken and the pressure on the kick.

The Crows, meanwhile, kicked better than expected, and the final expected margin was a 61-point win to the Cats.

While an eight-point loss may paper over some cracks, speaking on the ESPN Footy Podcast, Champion Data's Christian Joly said there are concerns about the Crows' ability to move the ball from back 50 into attack.

"One thing that stood out to me was the ball movement from the defensive half. It's probably the worst venue (GMHBA Stadium being narrow) to take an example from, but Adelaide could not move the ball," he said.

"Once Geelong got the ball inside 50, Adelaide was just stuck down there. They could get it to the wing or to a contest but it was coming straight back."

The Cats dominated the stats sheet and the territory battle, winning the disposal count 409-329 and inside 50s 67-45.

"Geelong had the first 10 inside 50s of the game and Adelaide couldn't get in past halfway," Joly continued.

"In the final quarter, [the Crows] had 18 defensive 50 chains -- so 18 times they started with the ball in their back 50 -- none of those chains resulted in an inside 50. That, for the Crows, is their most ever D50 chains to not end up with an inside 50 in a quarter. The way they ended the game was the way they started it.

"Going back to last year, they ranked 13th for going from defensive 50 to inside 50, and 13th for going from defensive midfield to inside 50. Of the top nine teams ... the eight other teams all ranked in the top eight of that stat. Then you have Adelaide dropping down to 13th."

Joly said the Crows have been playing "fluffy, wasteful" football.

"If you start with the ball, how well do you turn your chain into a score? They were eighth last year. This year, they're 17th for scoring from all their chains. Moving from defensive 50 to inside 50, they're 15th."

Joly pointed at Adelaide's high kick-to-handball ratio as another issue, as the successful teams are gaining metres by handball.

"They still kick it more than anyone, and they average the fewest metres gained by hand of any team ... they haven't embraced the handball and chaos game."

Thursday night was a masterclass from Geelong in beating the Crows; keep them locked in their back half and close up the space on a narrow ground. Geelong had 39 forward half intercepts, their seventh most ever in a game, and generated 66 of their 68 total points from their front half.

Teams will surely look to leverage these deficiencies against the Crows going forward in 2026, though probably won't have the luxury of a skinny ground in GMHBA Stadium which limits lateral movement out of the backline.

The caveat to all this is that on Thursday night, the Crows were missing nearly 800 games of experience, with Rory Laird, Jordan Dawson, and Taylor Walker all missing the trip to Geelong.

But it can't be denied, the Crows' biggest issue is their ball movement. As soon as teams can lock Adelaide in its own back half, the Crows struggle to move the ball, score, and gain the ascendency.

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