MEGA-PREVIEW: Cats v Hawks, stats that matter, who wins and why

SUMMARY

The fierce modern-day rivals meet again in a final for the first time in nine years with a place in the Grand Final up for grabs.

Geelong has a formidable record against Hawthorn in recent times with four consecutive victories by an average of 44 points, though the margin was much closer in their only meeting this year on Easter Monday. While the Cats won the last time they faced the Hawks in a final nine years ago they have not beaten their arch-rivals in a cut-throat clash since 1963. That includes a pair of painful Grand Final defeats with the prize this time a place in the decider.

Hawthorn has momentum behind it after a pair of stirring victories on the road. The Hawks might be returning to a preliminary for the first time in a decade but have quickly shown they have a line-up made for the pointy end of the season. They look solid in all areas with multiple avenues to goal, and a backline that can hold firm against aerial threats or add run and dare the other way. But it is their onball brigade that has risen to the occasion in back-to-back wins before taking on a tougher challenge against the Cats.

Geelong must consider whether to recall Rhys Stanley after the injured ruck missed the qualifying final win over the Lions and Mark Blicavs and Sam De Koning filled the void. Hawthorn faces more selection concerns with some doubts over the availability of Jack Gunston, Jack Ginnivan and Jarman Impey after the trio was managed late in the win against the Crows. Young key forward Calsher Dear will not be available due to a hamstring strain which will see Mitch Lewis hold his place.

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 19, 7.40pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 6: Geelong 12.14 (86) d Hawthorn 11.13 (79) at the MCG

Geelong held off a fast-finishing Hawthorn to win an Easter Monday thriller that reignited one of the most heated rivalries in the game. The Cats had had the better of the Hawks in recent years and were on track for another comfortable win over their old foes when pulling away to as much as a 23-point lead while Bailey Smith lit up the big stage. The Hawks stayed in touch through the second half before surging in the final term with goals to James Sicily and Connor Macdonald to level the score. Nick Watson had a chance to put the Hawks in front before Shaun Mannagh was the match-winner when slotting a hurried snap.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Geelong

The Cats will be lining up for just their second game in 27 days but have the finals experience and a settled side that should keep humming even without playing regular football. A forward group centred around Jeremy Cameron leads the competition for marks inside 50 with 16.2 a game, as well as for marks inside 50 differential at 5.5. But the Hawks have the defensive tall timber to test the Cats after conceding the fewest marks inside beyond that arc with nine a game.

Hawthorn

The Hawks smashed open both of their finals with a burst of centre clearance dominance most notably from the opening bounce last week with Jai Newcombe leading the way against the Crows. They went on to win that count in their finals against the Giants and Crows, and finished 13-9 in front of the Cats in round six, but will likely need to lift their game further in that area in the preliminary final. The Hawks are ranked 12th this season for average centre clearances at 11.6, while the Cats have been third – and the best of the remaining teams – with 12.8 a game.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Geelong

The game doesn't get any easier for key forwards as the season goes deeper into finals. Even Cats star Jeremy Cameron has found the pointy end tougher over the years. He has booted 733 goals in 278 matches for Geelong and GWS to have the highest average per game of all current players at 2.64. But as his average nudges up to 2.68 in the home and away season, it plummets to 1.94 during finals. Cameron helped spark the Cats in their qualifying final victory over the Lions even if wayward kicking meant he finished with only two majors. The Cats have proven they don't need Cameron to boot a bag for them to win. But if their spearhead can get off the leash early to put pressure back on the Hawks' defence, it could go a long way to leading the Cats back to a Grand Final.

Hawthorn

Jai Newcombe has hardly missed a beat since joining the Hawks in the 2021 mid-season draft but few could have foreseen the impact he has had as the stakes rise. The onballer has been the highest-rated player on the ground in all four finals he has played during the Hawks' resurgence across the past two years as the more contested game plays to his strengths. While Newcombe gradually wore down GWS with his power at stoppages in the elimination final, he tore the game apart a week later against Adelaide. The 24-year-old gathered the first four centre clearances of the game as the Hawks slammed on three quick goals from the opening bounce to immediately have the Crows under siege. Newcombe finished with 28 disposals, eight clearances and booted the sealer to likely book a date with one of the Cats' taggers on Friday night.

PREDICTION

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