Premier League relegation battle: Leeds beat Burnley to heap pressure on others

Dominic Calvert-Lewin had barely finished celebrating before Leeds United supporters underlined their belief that Premier League survival had been secured.

The England forward pounced on a mistake from Martin Dubravka to score his side's third goal against already‑relegated Burnley, prompting home fans at Elland Road to make their voices heard.

Chants of "we are staying up" echoed around the stadium as Leeds closed in on another season of top‑flight football.

Their 3-1 victory moves the Whites up to 14th in the table and almost certainly guarantees Premier League football in West Yorkshire next season.

After the game, defender Ethan Ampadu said Leeds had put themselves in a "strong position" before the final three games of the season.

"I said before the game that we've not managed to beat Burnley and we wanted a bit of revenge and to get to 43 points," Ampadu told Sky Sports.

"We like to think we've put ourselves in a strong position with three games left.

"We wanted to give [our fans] a bank holiday weekend to enjoy. We had the disappointment last weekend. Hopefully, three more good results."

It promises to be a joyful long weekend for Leeds supporters - but how long must they wait before safety is mathematically confirmed?

Officially, there is still work for Leeds to do to seal their Premier League status for another season.

After dispatching Burnley with ease on Friday, the Whites are nine points and four places above 18th-placed Tottenham, who occupy the third and final relegation spot.

It is worth pointing out that four of the teams directly below Leeds - Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Spurs - all have a game in hand on Daniel Farke's side.

But Spurs, who travel to Aston Villa on Sunday, can only achieve a maximum tally of 46 points.

Leeds could mathematically secure their place in the top flight next term with a victory at Tottenham - last season's Europa League winners - on 11 May.

The even better news for Leeds is no team has ever been relegated from a 38-game Premier League season with 43 points or more.

Their supporters can also take confidence from the fact the average points tally for the team finishing in 18th place is 34.5, which means 35 points is usually enough to finish outside the drop zone.

In the past five years, however, that number has dropped to 29.6 points.

"This is massive for Leeds," said former Whites midfielder Stuart Dallas on Sky Sports.

"When the goals were going in I was watching [Farke's] reaction on the touchline and you could see how much it means to him and the team.

"You look at it now and think there was never any doubt - but there is always that anxiety."

If Leeds are able to retain their top-flight status, the majority of supporters are likely point to wins against relegation rivals Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as the defining moments of the season.

But Farke is almost certain to share a different view.

The 49-year-old is more likely to point to a 3-2 defeat by Manchester City in late November as the moment his side's fortunes changed - and the numbers back it up.

After goals from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol put City 2-0 up inside 25 minutes, Leeds were left fearing the worst.

That was until Farke made an almighty roll of the dice, summoning Calvert-Lewin and defender Jaka Bijol from the bench to switch from a 4-3-3 to a 3-5-2.

It was a tactical switch that allowed Leeds an extra man in midfield and, crucially, offered extra support to summer signing Calvert-Lewin in attack.

Although Leeds saw a point snatched from their grasp when Foden scored a stoppage‑time winner, the performance - and a new tactical blueprint - offered both the club and Farke a road to redemption.

Leeds bounced back from the defeat against Pep Guardiola's side by taking four points from a possible six against Chelsea and reigning champions Liverpool in the next two games.

"He was under real pressure, there was a lot of talk about his job - other managers were getting touted - and you felt if he lost against Manchester City he would lose his job," said ex-Liverpool and Spurs midfielder Jamie Redknapp on Sky Sports.

"He didn't win that game but they changed the system that day, played with a lot of promise and since then they've gone on a great run and gone from strength to strength.

"The points they've produced since the start of December has been fantastic."

Since then, Leeds have lost only four out of a possible 19 league games - the ninth-best record in the division.

Consequently, Farke is on course to lead a team to Premier League survival for the first team in his career after failing to do so during his time in charge of Norwich.

If Leeds are just about there, what does that mean for the teams below them?

The Whites' victory over Burnley meant Newcastle slipped down to 15th, having themselves gone on a run of four successive losses.

The Magpies still have to play Nottingham Forest and West Ham, too, but even a single point from their remaining games could well be enough.

After the Hammers and Tottenham both played - and won - at the same time last Saturday, the three sides most under threat from relegation are all in action on different days across the bank holiday weekend:

Brentford v West Ham (Saturday, 15:00 BST)

Aston Villa v Tottenham (Sunday, 19:00 BST)

Chelsea v Nottingham Forest (Monday, 15:00 BST)

Tottenham boss Roberto de Zerbi urged his players to "silence the voice inside of us" during an impassioned four-minute monologue at the start of his pre-match news conference on Friday.

And they will want to silence Opta's super-computer too.

The data experts say Spurs, who face Leeds, Chelsea and Everton after Sunday's game at Villa Park, are favourites to go down with a 59.8% chance.

West Ham are the second-most likely to join Burnley and Wolves in the Championship next season on 38%, with Forest a much longer shot on 2%.

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