Sabalenka holds off Noskova to reach third Indian Wells final in four years

For the third time in four years, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will compete for the Indian Wells title. Holding off No. 14 seed Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-4, Sabalenka booked her spot in the BNP Paribas Open final and is now one win away from her 23rd singles title on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz.

Indian Wells: Scores | Draws | Order of play

She’s now the first World No. 1 in the PIF WTA Rankings to reach the final in consecutive years since the tournament’s inception in 1989 and joins Victoria Azarenka as the only two active players to reach the Indian Wells final three separate times.

Sabalenka has yet to win at Tennis Paradise but will have a chance against Elena Rybakina, who defeated Elina Svitolina in the second semifinal. Rybakina, who edged out Sabalenka in the recent Australian Open final, defeated her in the 2023 Indian Wells final. Sabalenka fell to Mirra Andreeva in last year's title match.

"I just want to focus, if I make it to the final, I want to make sure that I get it, I get the trophy," Sabalenka said to press afterwards. "I'm so done of losing these big finals. It felt like even though players were playing incredible tennis in those finals, I feel like I had so many opportunities that I didn't use.

"Right now my mentality, if I make it to the final, I'll go out there and, you know, I'll do everything I can and everything I cannot to get that trophy."

On Friday, Sabalenka’s strength and power overwhelmed Noskova, and with much higher temperatures, the court played much faster than in previous rounds, a factor that heavily played to Sabalenka’s advantage. Sabalenka’s service strategy to push Noskova wide with a large kick, complemented with her 11 aces and 37 winners -- both were the most she had in a single match all season -- outmatched the Czech.

Sabalenka's keys to victory

The service game and Noskova's lack thereof: This matchup was intriguing partly because of Noskova's serve. She came into the match with the most aces (35), including notching 13 in her quarterfinal vs. Talia Gibson. Friday, Noskova could not find her rhythm on her serve. Though scoring five aces, she had six double faults, including two in the sixth game that Sabalenka capitalized on to go up two breaks in the first set.

Statistically, Noskova landed only 59% of her first serves, winning just 61% of those points. Sabalenka particular excelled on her opponent's second serve, winning 56% of those points.

As for Sabalenka, her serve was highly effective. At various times, Noskova struggled to get the ball back in play on the return. The Czech had a pivotal chance to get the break back in the second set up 30-40 in the eighth game, but following a missed Noskova return and a Sabalenka ace, the World No. 1 held serve to take a 5-3 second set lead and guaranteed herself one chance to close the match on her serve.

To put into perspective on how effect Sabalenka's serve was, she had five aces in her first three games of the match, the first two of which were held at love.

Targeting the corners with her power: Whether with her serve or during the rallies, Sabalenka strategically pushed Noskova to corners of the court. Frequently, Noskova couldn't get the return back in play, and other times, Sabalenka created plenty of space for a winner.

Sabalenka's already a tricky opponent because it's difficult to out-hit her, and the sheer power behind her hits often had Noskova bending lower to return it or just watch the ball sail past her. Sabalenka's 37 winners nearly doubled her opponent's 19, and was a testament to the way she controlled the points and Noskova's movement within them.

The court simply played to Sabalenka's benefit Friday. Frequently, the kick on her serve would create a high bounce that Noskova had difficulty managing. The task was tall for the Czech, who hadn't played a top 30 opponent all tournament, with her lone seeded win at Indian Wells coming against Alexandra Eala.

While her forehand and backhand returns were quite common Friday, Sabalenka also played well at the net when Noskova cleverly mixed in a drop shot. The mixture of shots is something Sabalenka is consistently working on, and the eagerness to improve those areas is what she credits as the key to her success.

"If you want to be on the top, you always have to search for something, for little details to add to your game so you can be really unpredictable," Sabalenka said. "To have all those tools in your game, that definitely gives you so much of advantage over other players."

What it means?

The four-time Grand Slam champion now improves to 7-1 against top 20 players this season, with the lone defeat coming to Rybakina in Melbourne. Sabalenka is also 2-0 vs. Noskova, previously defeating her at the 2023 Adelaide International final for her 11th WTA title.

Sunday's final will mark Sabalenka's 43rd at the tour-level, and she's now reached three consecutive finals at the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami), joining Monica Seles and Steffi Graf.

Click here to read article