T20 World Cup Semifinal Scenarios: Exact Results That India Need To Qualify

Thursday is a crucial day for the Indian cricket team as it chases a spot in the T20 World Cup 2026 semi-finals. A 76-run loss in their first T20 World Cup Super 8 game against South Africa has left the Suryakumar Yadav-led side in a tricky spot. Thursday's two matches - South Africa vs West Indies and India vs Zimbabwe - will both play a huge role in deciding whether the defending champions will progress to the last four or not. Currently, this is how the T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 points table stands:

1. West Indies (2 points, 1 match, NRR +5.350)

2. South Africa (2 points, 1 match, NRR +3.800)

3. India (0 point, 1 match, NRR -3.800)

4. Zimbabwe (0 point, 1 match, NRR -5.350)

Today, South Africa vs West Indies will take place at the Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad from 3 pm IST. Also, India vs Zimbabwe will take place at the MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai from 7 pm IST.

Other Fixtures in T20 World Cup Super 8 Group 1

March 1: South Africa vs Zimbabwe (3 pm)

March 1: India vs West Indies (7 pm)

Best-case Scenario

If South Africa beat West Indies on Thursday and then India beat Zimbabwe, here's how the points table will look after the matches -

1. South Africa (4 points)

2/3. West Indies (2 points)

2/3. India (2 points)

4. Zimbabwe (0 point)

In that case, the Proteas will be through to the semi-finals. Also, the winner of the next India vs West Indies match will advance irrespective of the Net Run Rate.

Scenario 2

If West Indies beat South Africa on Wednesday and India beat Zimbabwe, here's how the points table will look after the matches -

1. West Indies (4 points)

2/3. South Africa (2 points)

2/3. India (2 points)

4. Zimbabwe (0 point)

In such a case, India will have to beat West Indies by a heavy margin in the third match to improve their Net Run Rate. Then, they have to hope that Zimbabwe either beat South Africa (so that the Proteas' points remain at 2) or lose to the Proteas by a very narrow margin (so that South Africa don't surpass India's NRR).

Scenario 3

If India lose to Zimbabwe, they are all but out. However, they can still go through. They would then have to hope that South Africa beat West Indies and Zimbabwe. India would then have to beat West Indies by a very big margin. In that case, South Africa will have 6 points. India, West Indies and Zimbabwe will have two points each and the team with the better Net Run Rate will go through.

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