little decided ahead of finale

With permutation chatter gathering speed ahead of Round 6, the picture was supposed to be clearer heading into Super Sunday but after another dramatic weekend in the Allianz Football League, a fog of confusion still hovers over.

Let's start with the basics. Down are promoted from Division 3 while Monaghan, Offaly and Fermanagh are relegated from Divisions 1, 2 and 3 respectively. After that, no other prizes – premier or booby – have been encased in cement.

Here, we’ll map out the main plot-lines for this weekend’s decisive round of fixtures.

A reminder, it’s head-to-head results that dictate when two teams are level, but scoring difference comes into play when three or more teams finish on the same points.

DIVISION 1

Armagh v Kerry

Galway v Dublin

Mayo v Roscommon

Monaghan v Donegal

League finalists

Ahead of Round 6, four teams could still reach the league final and a week on, four teams can still reach the league final.

Donegal’s defeat to Roscommon on Sunday complicates things slightly for Jim McGuinness’ side. They face relegated Monaghan and if Kerry beat Armagh and Roscommon beat Mayo, they’ll need to win. A draw will do if Kerry and Mayo win as they have Andy Moran’s side on the head-to-head rule.

Defeat will be enough if Kerry lose unless the Connacht derby ends in a draw, then scoring difference will decide two from four.

A draw is good enough for Kerry unless Donegal draw and there’s a winner in Castlebar, then scoring difference will pick two from three on 10 points.

A win for Mayo or Roscommon would be enough if either Donegal or Kerry lose while a draw would bring four teams onto nine in the event of the current top two losing.

Relegation battle

Monaghan are down, and if Dublin had held on having led by 11 against Armagh, it would have been an Ulster double drop.

The Orchard County’s comeback leaves three teams still fighting the drop. They now have the head-to-head advantage on Dublin, which could be crucial. Beat Kerry and it doesn’t matter what happens elsewhere due to a strong score difference situation. A draw will be enough too if Dublin can’t win.

If Dublin lose to Galway, they’re down. Better Armagh’s result and they will survive.

Wins for Armagh and Dublin will bring three teams onto six points and scoring difference would be at play. In that scenario, Armagh will be safe as they are guaranteed to finish above Galway.

Dublin would need to beat Galway by four points to send the Tribe County down, if Armagh beat Kerry.

Indeed, a four-point win for Dublin will guarantee their safety in any circumstance, whether on score difference or otherwise.

A defeat for Galway wouldn’t prove fatal if Armagh fail to beat Kerry.

DIVISION 2

Derry v Cavan

Kildare v Louth

Offaly v Meath

Tyrone v Cork

Promotion situation

Like Division 1, four teams could still book a Croke Park date, realistically a secondary reward with top-flight football in 2027 the real aim for the quartet.

Cork and Meath, with a two-point buffer, hold the advantage and if one, or both, avoid defeat, they’re going up.

If both lose, and Louth and Derry win, scoring difference will come into play for the four teams.

There are too many possible outcomes to go through across the four games, so a reminder that in terms of the head-to-head advantages should two teams finish on level points, Cork have the nod over Meath and Louth, Meath have it over Louth and Derry, Derry have it over Cork and Louth have it over Derry.

On score difference, Derry (+42) are sitting pretty ahead of Meath (+23), Louth (+18) and Cork (+2).

In essence, for Louth, assuming they beat Kildare, they would probably need all three of their fellow contenders to lose as it's likely they need to get into a three-way tie with just Meath and Cork given how far ahead Derry are on them in terms of scoring difference.

Derry sit fourth currently, but if they beat Cavan as expected, they’re practically guaranteed promotion should Cork lose - no matter what happens with Louth. Theoretically, they could lose out on score difference but reality is much different.

Relegation battle

Offaly gave it a good lash against Cavan, but they were edged out and their threadbare squad is heading back to Division 3.

Who will join them? Well, while it looks like it’s one from Kildare or Cavan, incredibly Tyrone also head into the final day looking to avoid possible Tailteann Cup football (although that won’t be decided for months) in what would be a sensational drop-off for the 2021 All-Ireland champions.

Malachy O’Rourke’s side are pretty much safe though. They’d need to lose to Cork and for Kildare and Cavan to win, or for Kildare to win and Cavan to draw. Even if those results happened, they currently have a 28-point scoring advantage over both their fellow relegation contenders so scorelines would need to be pretty crazy too.

The more likely scenario involves the other two sides. Cavan just need to match Kildare’s final day result to stay up. The Lilywhites need to win and see Cavan lose to secure Division 2 football next season.

DIVISION 3

Down v Laois

Limerick v Fermanagh

Sligo v Clare

Wexford v Westmeath

Promotion situation

Down are the only team across all four divisions with a ticket to Croke Park booked where they’ll be hoping to improve on their frankly horrendous final record since their last All-Ireland win in 1994.

Their last loss was a 2024 Division 3 final against Westmeath, and it’ll be the same pairing again if Mark McHugh’s side can win or draw in Wexford.

The Model County – tipped by many, including some here in RTÉ Sport – as likely relegation fodder, have now won 15 of their last 17 regular season league games (we’re excluding last year's Division 4 final loss to Limerick) and know that if they go 16 from 18 they’ll have secured back-to-back promotions and possibly All-Ireland SFC football later in the summer.

Relegation battle

A quick glance at the table would suggest that Fermanagh’s win over Laois has kept their survival hopes alive, but even if they were to beat Limerick on Sunday, Sligo have them on the head-to-head rule so the highest they can finish is seventh.

The Yeats County are by no means safe though, and Laois can get dragged into that relegation quagmire also.

Limerick are most in danger though, and it doesn’t help that Sligo have the advantage on the head-to-head while Laois, who they drew with a few weeks ago, have a much better scoring difference.

The Treaty County have to win and hope Sligo and Laois lose. If they win and Sligo also avoid defeat, they’d need a big swing in the scoring difference stakes.

Sligo’s scoring difference is currently 14 points better off than Limerick but they’re 11 behind Laois, so a draw at home to Clare will be enough unless there’s a big swing on that front. A win keeps them up.

If Laois lose, they could go down if Limerick win and the scoring difference swaps. A Laois loss, Sligo draw and Limerick win would see scoring difference choose one unlucky winner to join the Erne County.

DIVISION 4

Antrim v London

Carlow v Leitrim

Tipperary v Waterford

Longford v Wicklow

Promotion situation

Oh boy, here we go. If we were in the way of using gifs (we’re not), we’d be reaching for the famed one of Alan from the Hangover with all the numbers buzzing around his head.

Seven, yes seven, teams enter the final round hunting for promotion - with Waterford playing the role of a hidden eighth dwarf we’ll name 'Immaterial’. That’s not strictly correct, while they can’t alter their own outcome, they can impact on the race in Tipperary.

Understandably the various scenarios probably reach into the hundreds – where's that gif again? - so here’s one possible path to promotion for the many contenders.

Carlow: Beat Leitrim and they are promoted.

Wicklow: Beat Longford and they are promoted.

London: Beat Antrim and see Carlow lose and they are promoted.

Longford: Beat Wicklow and if London can only draw or lose they are promoted.

Antrim: Beat London, see Wicklow and Carlow lose and Tipperary fail to win, coupled with having a better scoring difference than Wicklow, Carlow and Leitrim, and they are promoted.

Tipperary: Beat Waterford, see Antrim beat London, Leitrim beat Carlow, Wicklow beat Longford, coupled with having a better scoring difference than Antrim, Leitrim and Carlow, and they are promoted.

Leitrim: Beat Carlow, see Wicklow beat Longford, Antrim beat London and Waterford beat Tipperary, coupled with having a better scoring difference than Carlow and Antrim, would see them promoted.

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