5 keys to Packers beating Saints in Week 16

The Green Bay Packers will attempt to get win No. 11 when they host the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field for a “Monday Night Football” showdown in Week 16. While the Packers will have a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a few results before Monday night, a win over the Saints would also do the trick.

The Packers are big betting favorites against the 5-9 Saints, who are all but eliminated from playoff contention and expected to be without several key contributors. While the Saints started 2-7, interim coach Darren Rizzi is 3-2 over the last five games, and rookie Spencer Rattler was a two-point conversion away from upsetting the Washington Commanders last week.

Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Saints in Week 16:

Feed the psychos

A cold night game at Lambeau Field against a defense that has struggled to get ball-carriers on the ground, especially after the catch? You know what time it is. Feed the psycho trio — Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. The Packers used this formula to steamroll the visiting 49ers and Dolphins during a five-day stretch to end November. The same can be done against the Saints, who are bleeding yards after the catch while also giving up 4.9 yards per carry in the run game. This is a game to get the ball to playmakers and let them do the tackle-breaking work they love.

Attack the rookie QB

Spencer Rattler, who is expected to start for the Saints, has been sacked 10 times on 140 dropbacks. Like most young players at the position, processing speed and pocket awareness have been hurdles for Rattler to getting the ball out on time. The Packers defense must take away the quick first reads and force the rookie to hold the ball. Last week, the defensive front did a terrific job of winning one-on-one matchups and disrupting the pocket. Watch the edges — both of the Saints offensive tackles have allowed 30 or more pressures this season. Another sack-fest could ensue if Rattler get rattled early. Don’t be surprised if the Saints’ plan is built around screens and underneath stuff to protect the rookie.

Win the LOS on offense

The Saints aren’t lacking talent up front on defense. Both Carl Granderson and Chase Young have more than 50 pressures, and 2023 first-round pick Bryan Bresee and veteran Cam Jordan can disrupt from various alignments. It’s tough to imagine the Saints winning this game without a dominant effort from the front — both in terms of stopping the run on early downs and pressuring Jordan Love in passing situations. The Packers must lean on the run game — the Saints are giving up almost 5.0 yards per carry and rank near the bottom in most meaningful run defense metrics. Expect Matt LaFleur to give Josh Jacobs another chance to feast, especially if the weather isn’t ideal for throwing the football.

Score touchdowns in the red zone

The Saints rank eighth in the NFL in touchdown percentage allowed in the red zone this season, creating a big reason why New Orleans ranks 30th in yards allowed but only 13th in points allowed. The Packers can’t march up and down the field and then settle for field goals. Matt LaFleur’s offense has done a better job converting opportunities in the red zone, mostly thanks to Josh Jacobs’ ability to find the end zone from inside the 5-yard line. The Packers need to score touchdowns early and not keep the Saints in the game.

Win the ball

Turnovers are so often an equalizer in games like this one. Jordan Love has just one turnover in the last five games and four straight games without an interception, and he needs to continue the streak against the Saints on Monday night. Can the Saints win this game without getting a takeaway or two? The New Orleans offense is going to be starting a rookie quarterback and will be without most of its top weapons. They will need short fields and momentum-changing plays. The Packers can’t provide them. Protect the ball, win the ball, and the Packers are going to win this football game.

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