Ranking the 16 teams remaining in this season’s Champions League

The Athletic has live coverage of today’s Champions League last-16 draw.

After 197 matches (qualifiers included), just 16 teams remain in the Champions League, with the draw later today defining the path each one will need to take to achieve glory.

Before that, though, The Athletic has ranked the remaining 16 teams from last to first. The barometers for our rankings include Opta’s projections for the remainder of their campaign, a team’s performances in 2025-26, relative squad strength and their history in the competition.

These will be updated post the completion of the draw, which begins at 11am GMT (6am ET) on Friday at the House of European Football in Nyom, Switzerland.

16. Bayer Leverkusen

Leverkusen, who will face Arsenal or Bayern Munich in the round of 16, have just an 18 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals, the lowest among remaining teams.

It is not entirely a surprise given they sit sixth in the Bundesliga with 12 wins in 22 matches. Three of their 10 Champions League games were against Olympiacos, and they won just one of those, while losing 7-2 to Paris Saint-Germain and drawing with Copenhagen and PSV, who finished 31st and 28th respectively in the league phase.

Their only match against Bayern, who sent them out of the competition in the last 16 in 2024-25, this season ended 3-0 to the Bavarians.

15. Atalanta

Atalanta’s comeback from a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund was a certified Champions League classic. The only Serie A representative left in the competition also beat Chelsea 2-1 at home in December and are on a nine-game unbeaten run in the league.

But three of their last Champions League matches have ended in defeats, including a damaging collapse at home to lose 3-2 against Athletic Club and a drab 1-0 defeat away at Union Saint-Gilloise.

Recent form and the momentum generated against Dortmund may galvanise this team enough to give it a go, but Bayern and Arsenal will surely prove simply too strong.

14. Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs, who are on a nine-game winless run in the Premier League, are as unpredictable as their potential round-of-16 opponents. Atletico Madrid have not won three successive league games since November, while Galatasaray nearly blew a three-goal first-leg lead to 10-man Juventus.

As in 2024-25, they will be up for the nights in Europe, given their hopes of Champions League qualification through the Premier League are dead in the water. Per Opta, they have the fifth-best chance (57 per cent) behind Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern and Manchester City to make the quarter-finals, which perhaps feels a bit generous.

Unlike last season, though, Spurs are mired in a genuine relegation fight, which means they cannot simply throw away games in the league. A long injury list and Igor Tudor’s Champions League record (two wins in nine matches with Juventus and Marseille) only add to the doubts swirling around this team.

13. Sporting CP

Sporting pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the league phase when they beat PSG 2-1 after holding Bayern goalless for 65 minutes (and even leading for 11 of those). They then showed incredible heart to steal a 3-2 win at Athletic Club to secure a top-eight spot on Matchday 8.

Real Madrid pose a potentially difficult draw in the last 16, and Sporting have won just one of their six previous meetings against them. But this is a vulnerable Madrid side that struggled at times before pulling away against Benfica, and the Primeira Liga leaders would have a puncher’s chance. If Sporting draw Bodo/Glimt, we could get a highly entertaining Champions League encounter that could go either way.

But even if they get through, one of Arsenal or Bayern likely await in the next round.

12. Bodo/Glimt

What a journey this has been. Bodo were on the verge of elimination after five matches, having lost three games in succession to Galatasaray, Monaco and Juventus. But a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund, followed by wins over Manchester City and Atletico Madrid saw them sneak into the playoff spots

Up against Inter, finalists in two of the last three editions and the current Serie A leaders, Bodo were courageous, organized and clinical, resulting in a maiden last-16 appearance. The 5-2 aggregate win was enough for Opta to give them a 25 per cent chance of progressing to the quarter-finals, with either Manchester City or Sporting up next.

The 3-1 home win over City will be fresh in the memory, while they have never played Sporting previously in their history. Aspmyra Stadion will be bouncing no matter who they draw but Bodo proved with the 2-1 wins at the Metropolitano and San Siro that they can be dangerous visitors too.

11. Galatasaray

Galatasaray’s path to the round of 16 is promising. Liverpool and Spurs could be difficult opponents but in Victor Osimhen, they have a striker who can bother two defenders who have struggled at times against physical centre-forwards.

Osimhen scored in the Super Lig side’s league-phase win over Liverpool. He was responsible for three of their seven goals against Juventus in the play-off round, assisting two with high regains before calmly slotting home the go-ahead goal in extra time of a chaotic second leg.

Galatasaray’s five high turnovers resulting in a goal are only bettered by four remaining teams: PSG, Newcastle United, Bodo, and Leverkusen.

10. Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid are one of the most unpredictable teams in Europe right now. They can beat Barcelona 4-0 but lose 3-0 to relegation-threatened Rayo Vallecano. In the Champions League, they edged Inter 2-1 but lost to Bodo/Glimt while drawing 4-4 with Club Brugge on aggregate until the 48th minute of the second leg.

Atletico are no longer the watertight defensive unit that relies on the dark arts to make deep Champions League runs. This is a team that has scored 80 times in 40 matches across competitions while conceding 46. For context, their last side to make a Champions League final 10 years ago conceded 43 times in 57 matches all season.

Liverpool needed a last-minute Virgil van Dijk header to beat Atletico during the league phase. A rematch with Arne Slot’s side or a clash against Spurs could both be enticing solely due to the air of unpredictability around it.

9. Newcastle United

Of the remaining teams left in the competition, none have been more clinical with their big chances than Newcastle (23 of 45 converted, 51 per cent). Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes have scored 15 times from 11.7xG (which measures the quality of chances) in Europe compared to eight from 11.6xG in the Premier League.

Eddie Howe’s side have upped their game considerably in the Champions League despite sitting 11th domestically. They have the quality to bother Chelsea, who they drew 2-2 with in December. They troubled Barcelona early during their league-phase meeting at St James’ Park and could have led before a Marcus Rashford second-half double and the visitors’ composure in midfield carried them through to a 2-1 win.

Opta’s projections give them a 45 per cent chance of making it past either of those teams.

8. Chelsea

We could potentially get a rematch of the summer’s Club World Cup final in the round of 16. Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea beat PSG 3-0 on that occasion, relying on long balls over the press and clever movement to create space for Cole Palmer to exploit.

Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have shown promise, especially in a battling 3-2 win at Napoli, but are still looking for a signature victory 12 matches in. They have faced familiar issues with indiscipline, tactically and otherwise, which are often punished in crunch knockout games.

This is not a vintage PSG side by any stretch and that explains why Chelsea have the sixth-best odds to make it to the last eight (55 per cent), where they could meet one of Liverpool, Spurs, Atletico or Galatasaray. That also means they have the fifth-best chance to make the semi-finals (33 per cent).

7. Real Madrid

Real Madrid have faced injuries to key players all season but have found ways to stay afloat domestically and in Europe.

The performance against Benfica was not the greatest but, in many senses, was a classic: Madrid invite all the pressure onto them, opponents fail to take their chances, they eventually wake up and kill games off.

Sporting would pose a tough but passable test, but Manchester City will be a much harder draw, given their earlier meeting ended 2-1 to Pep Guardiola’s side at the Bernabeu.

Alvaro Arbeloa, like some of his successful predecessors, has been able to rely on individual quality in Europe. Like in seasons before this one, there are questions over whether that will be good enough against the best teams.

But discount them at your own peril.

6. Paris Saint-Germain

The reigning champions required two red cards and two comebacks to beat Monaco in the knockout play-offs. PSG have looked far from the invincible team they seemed like in the latter stages of last season’s Champions League and for 95 per cent of the Club World Cup last summer.

They were flat in losses to Bayern and Sporting and draws with Athletic Club and Newcastle during the league phase. But they smashed Leverkusen, Atalanta and Spurs (who incidentally make up the bottom three in this list), scoring 16 goals in the process.

PSG are also, for once, engaged in a genuine title race in Ligue 1 this season after wrapping it up early in 2024-25. All of those are reasons for Opta giving them just a 10 per cent chance of making the last four and a four per cent chance of retaining their crown.

5. Liverpool

Liverpool ended the Champions League’s league phase with wins against Inter, Marseille and Qarabag, scoring 10 and conceding none in the process. Their 6.7 xG allowed to opponents is only bettered by Arsenal (6.2).

Arne Slot’s side have looked far more assured in the Champions League, even while winning just six of their last 15 Premier League games (seven draws). Liverpool have also been excellent from set pieces in Europe, with no remaining team managing more than their 7.0xG per 100 set pieces. Only Atletico (seven) have scored more goals from corners than their four.

Opta’s projections are backing Liverpool in the round of 16, giving them a 77 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals (only behind Arsenal’s 86 per cent).

4. Barcelona

The sheer attacking firepower Barcelona have at their disposal is a cause for encouragement.

Lamine Yamal, Marcus Rashford and Fermin Lopez have all been excellent in the Champions League. They could have Raphinha fit and firing too, while Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres, both on a lean run recently, are capable goalscorers. Behind them, Pedri and Frenkie de Jong are one of the best central midfield partnerships in Europe.

Their defence is a concern, however. Barcelona have conceded 14 times in the Champions League, with teams pulling their high line apart with decoy offside runs and switches of play.

PSG and Newcastle, as well as potential last-eight opponents Atletico, have the pace to do the same, as they have shown in their meetings with Barcelona this season. But if they are more pragmatic when required, a point raised during talks between Hansi Flick and his team this month, this team’s ceiling is incredibly high.

3. Manchester City

In Gianluigi Donnarumma, Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, and Jeremy Doku, Manchester City have a team capable of producing moments of magic. Their direct style this season is much more suited to the chaos of a knockout competition than previous iterations, too.

Granted, this is not a vintage City team in many ways, but they are still fighting for titles in four competitions. While that could impact their Champions League performance, they simply seem better built for a knockout competition than for sustained excellence in the league.

City have a 13 per cent chance of winning it all per Opta, only behind the top two…

2. Bayern Munich

Bayern looked invincible in the first half of 2025-26. They won 15 of their first 17 Bundesliga matches, not losing once, while their only defeat in the Champions League during that time came against Arsenal at the Emirates.

There were minor wobbles against Sporting and PSV in Europe and Augsburg and Hamburg in the league, but Vincent Kompany’s side remains a force to be reckoned with. Atalanta and Leverkusen should prove a formality on most accounts in the round of 16, while they have the firepower to take down a heavyweight in the last eight.

Bayern have the second-best odds to make the final at 29 per cent, only behind the one team they cannot meet again unless they get there…

1. Arsenal

A recent blip in their Premier League form may raise doubts, but Arsenal are still the team to beat in Europe’s top five leagues. Their football is not always easy on the eye and recent weeks have shown chinks in a largely impenetrable armour, but this is a team who have scored 104 goals and conceded just 36 in 43 matches in 2025-26.

Arsenal are excellent from set pieces and without the ball, while having players capable of solving in-game problems on the fly. Competing on four fronts might catch up to them at some point, particularly with Manchester City breathing down their necks in the Premier League, but they have a deep enough squad to combat that issue.

Knockout football will pose different challenges, but this is a great chance for Arsenal to win their first Champions League title.

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