Top FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 27 Captaincy metrics blog. We are back to normalcy after a below-par DGW, with Chelsea seeing out their good block of fixture running against Burnley. Manchester City welcome Newcastle at the Etihad and seem to be back in a title race. Arsenal have been struggling to see out wins recently, travel to bitter rivals Tottenham for the North London Derby, while Manchester United face a tricky trip to Everton this week.

Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 28 + 4 + 26 + 32 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 12 + 14 = 348 points

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW27 Captaincy Metrics

Joao Pedro tops the captaincy poll this week with 36% of the votes and will be up against Burnley (H). Haaland, who seems to have been cleared for fitness by Pep, is 2nd with 16% of the votes. Palmer is 3rd in the captaincy poll this week with 14% of the votes. Bruno Fernandes is up against Everton away is 4th, while Igor Thiago starts a run of great fixtures against Brighton (H), rounds up the captaincy picks for GW27.

Further Read: 2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide for the 2nd Half of the Season

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks

Palmer tops the table with 11 shots in the box, 7 Big chances, and an xG of 5.15 in the last six games.

Thiago is 2nd with an xG of 3.64 in the last six games. He’s also had 7 big chances and 16 shots inside the box.

Haaland is 3rd with an xG of 3.31 in the last six games. He’s had 5 big chances and created has had 13 shots inside the box.

Joao Pedro stands 4th with an xG of 2.39, managing 14 shots inside the box and 6 big chances in total.

Finally, Bruno stands last with an xG of 1.15 and 4 shots inside the box and 3 big chance.

Further Read: Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 25/26 FPL Season

Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams

Chelsea take the top spot and have registered 15.45 xG, 26 Big Chances, and 59 Shots inside the box in the last six games.

Brentford are up next with 53 shots inside the box and 20 big chances during the period, and an xG of 10.24.

Manchester City are up next with 57 shots inside the box and 15 big chances during the period, and an xG of 10.06.

Lastly, Manchester United are last with 64 shots inside the box and 20 big chances during the period, and an xG of 9.67.

Further Read: Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline

Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW27

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.

Manchester City have 87% odds to get at least one goal and 39% odds to get 2 or more Goals this Gameweek vs Newcastle (H).

Manchester United are 2nd with 81% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Everton (A) and 25% odds of scoring 2 or more goals.

Chelsea are 3rd with 81% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Burnley (H) and 23% odds of scoring 2 or more goals.

Lastly, Brentford are last with 77% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Brighton (H) and 17% odds of scoring 2 or more goals.

Further Read: AK’s FPL GW27 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks

In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.

Haaland is joint-first with an anytime returns projection of 71% and a 7.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 27 vs Newcastle (H). Palmer is also joint-first with an anytime returns projection of 65% and a 7.4 points projection in FPL Gameweek 27 vs Burnley (H)

Joao Pedro is third and has an anytime returns projection of 61% and a 5.8 points projection, while Bruno is fourth with anytime returns projection of 49% and a points projection of 6.0.

Thiago is last has an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.5 vs Brighton (H).

Further Read: FPL GW27 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Stats & Eye Test

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 27 Captaincy metrics

Palmer is top of the captaincy metrics with a cumulative rank factor of 5, Haaland is a close second with a CRF of 9. Joao Pedro is third third with a CRF value of 11. Thiago is fourth with a CRF value of 15 and Bruno is last with a CRF value 16.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW27:

Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 25/26 FPL Season

FPL GW27 Captaincy Metrics- Top Captain Picks based on Stats and Analysis

AK’s FPL GW27 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes

Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW27 Scout Selection based on Stats and Matchups

FPL GW27 Transfer Targets and Watchlist based on Stats and Fixtures

FPL GW27 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell

2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide for the 2nd Half of the Season

Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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