Ranking the NFL Head Coach Openings With the Steelers’ Job Now Available

Before wild-card weekend, we ranked the eight available head coaching jobs in the NFL and predicted the ideal fits for each job—and then the league went haywire … again. John Harbaugh has effectively begun his free-agency tour. The Steelers’ job opened on Tuesday afternoon and Mike Tomlin is on the market (or is he?). Marcus Freeman might be back in play. So, it’s time to reset once again and take a second look at the now nine available jobs, rank them and assign the best fits for each market.

We have a much better picture of the current situation—like a puzzle in which you’ve been able to put together all the edge pieces. It’s still not perfect, but we can move forward with a little more confidence than we have in the past few weeks.

A note: As of now, it does not seem like many people expect Tomlin to coach next season. If that changes, we will revisit this breakdown.

Nine openings. A sea of interviews. Endless chaos.

Let’s dig into it.

1. Baltimore Ravens

Best guess: Jesse Minter, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Chargers

The Ravens remain the top opening on our list, and you can check out our reasons why in the initial piece. I am staying with Jesse Minter because, as one league source pointed out, he is the only candidate thus far to get a clean sweep of interviews with every team that has a vacancy. That means, by process of elimination, he’s probably getting one. And a good one at that.

However, owner Steve Bisciotti has thrown me for a loop by talking about candidates who were hot “five or six years ago” and had to “grind it out” in places with suboptimal talent. That would favor coaches such as Vance Joseph, Brian Flores and Kevin Stefanski.

Minter is brilliant, and it’s important to remember that one of the Ravens’ chief frustrations with John Harbaugh was late-game management. If Minter jibes with Baltimore’s analytical approach, I could see his candidacy coming down to his choice for offensive coordinator and how well he might fit with franchise stalwarts such as Kyle Hamilton and Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens’ opening will come down to five finalists and if I had to project them now, I would guess: Minter, Klint Kubiak, Flores, Joseph and Davis Webb (with the possible inclusion of Freeman if he decides to interview for jobs).

Other options: Klint Kubiak, Davis Webb (with Kliff Kingsbury as OC), Marcus Freeman, Brian Flores, Vance Joseph, Kevin Stefanski

2. Atlanta Falcons

Best guess: Kevin Stefanski, former head coach, Cleveland Browns

I am also standing firm on my Stefanski-to-Atlanta prediction. This feels like the most natural fit for the former Browns head coach and a natural pairing with fellow Pennsylvania native Matt Ryan running football operations. Atlanta needs to hit this hire down the fairway and, in utilizing its position as one of the clear best openings of the cycle, coming away with Stefanski would be a major coup. I also think Stefanski would be a natural fit with highly regarded defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who is connected via the same wide-ranging Kubiak-Shanahan tree.

Other options: Klint Kubiak, Mike McDaniel, John Harbaugh

3. New York Giants

Best guess: John Harbaugh, former head coach, Baltimore Ravens

Now that the dust has settled on the Dolphins’ situation and they have a GM in place, the following narrative has emerged: A quixotic journey undertaken by the brother of Giants’ owner John Mara. A lunch with just Mara, John Harbaugh and Harbaugh’s wife, Ingrid. A prophecy of sorts to step into this role and land the candidate that seems to have the entire fan base swooning. And, perhaps, a Giants GM whose status remains up in the air if Harbaugh has another candidate in mind. Landing Harbaugh and a new GM in a matter of weeks would cap a delirious offseason for a fan base struggling with its thin grip on optimism after some of the bleaker years in Giants history.

Other options: Chris Shula, Kevin Stefanski, Mike McCarthy

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers were not on my initial list of rankings. In this version, I have the team at No. 4, reflecting both the prestige of the job and its challenges ahead. Replacing Tomlin means that the floor for the expectations in this job is eight losses, despite having no quarterback, an aging roster and a noticeable lack of skill-position talent.

Best guess (tie): Marcus Freeman, head coach, Notre Dame; Brian Flores, defensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings; Chris Shula, defensive coordinator Los Angeles Rams

If the Steelers could build a candidate in a laboratory, it would probably come close to the Notre Dame head coach—a former Ohio State linebacker who has built ruthless defenses at the collegiate level, has a noticeable bite to him and would bring a tailwind of youthful energy to the forefront in Pittsburgh. While Freeman is entrenched at Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and its track record of stability and pragmatism offer Freeman what other collegiate coaches do not get at the NFL level: the luxury of time and learning on the job. This would be a home run hire for Pittsburgh.

If Freeman is still un-pryable, I don’t think there’s a better backup option than Flores. You can read my Steelers-specific breakdown for more on why I think Flores is an ideal fit for Pittsburgh, where he spent the 2022 season working under Tomlin. Shula, as my colleague Albert Breer noted, has been on Pittsburgh’s short list for some time now.

Other options: Ejiro Evero, Klint Kubiak

5. Tennessee Titans

Best guess (tie): Matt Nagy, offensive coordinator, Kansas City Chiefs; Robert Saleh, defensive coordinator, San Francisco 49ers

I see Tennessee as the second-leading spot for Stefanski, but in the likely scenario that Stefanski lands one of the top jobs, Nagy could come to Tennessee with a solid staff and the ability to maximize a quarterback. Say what you will about his Bears teams, but Mitch Trubisky was palatable to watch for a while and was in the same EPA per play neighborhood as Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield.

I have also heard that Saleh is very much a dark horse for this job and could surprise the field after most of us have been leaning toward Nagy for the past week or so. Saleh and Cam Ward would be an excellent pairing, and the former Jets head coach’s ability to churn out competitive defenses is almost automatic at this point. It would be a high-upside hire for a Titans team desperately in need of life.

Other options: Kevin Stefanski, Mike McDaniel

6. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins slip behind the Titans and the newly added Steelers. Miami offers much in the way of lifestyle upgrades but less in the area of immediate roster health. The Dolphins need to make a change at quarterback and likely won’t get nearly as much out of the offense as McDaniel did. The defense is also lacking in upside.

Best guess: Klint Kubiak, offensive coordinator, Seattle Seahawks

I initially had Jeff Hafley, which I fear is too simplistic, though Hafley has his first in-person interview there Wednesday. Hafley worked with new Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan in Green Bay. However, Sullivan also has ties with Saleh, who is close to Matt LaFleur and was a consultant in Green Bay after his time with the Jets. He overlapped in Green Bay with Mike McCarthy, and Sullivan spent a lot of time in Green Bay with Seahawks GM John Schneider. Perhaps Schneider can provide some insight on Kubiak, who would be a hire that could pacify Dolphins fans who’ll miss the offensive acumen of McDaniel.

Other options: Robert Saleh, John Harbaugh, Jeff Hafley, Mike McCarthy

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Best guess (tie): Davis Webb, passing-game coordinator, Denver Broncos (with Kliff Kingsbury as OC); Kliff Kingsbury, former offensive coordinator, Washington Commanders (with Davis Webb as OC); Vance Joseph, defensive coordinator, Denver Broncos (with Kingsbury or Webb as OC); Robert Saleh, defensive coordinator, San Francisco 49ers

I realize I’m giving myself a wide berth here, but I think it will come down to these few names. And from there, it will depend on who can secure the right coordinator and land the plane upon the final interview. Honestly, this is an awesome place to be if you’re GM John Spytek and minority owner Tom Brady. You have experienced head coaches who have had success in your division, and a possible up-and-comer who has dazzled the interview circuit this year and could become your future Sean McVay.

Other options: Jesse Minter, Jeff Hafley, Ejiro Evero

8. Arizona Cardinals

With Cleveland having the option to hire Jim Schwartz, the Cardinals are the one team that is leaving everyone guessing. The head coach in this situation has to be absolutely fearless and resigned to the fact that six of his 17 games per season are going to be against Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald. This is a young roster with upside but major question marks at the quarterback position.

Best guess: Jeff Hafley, defensive coordinator, Green Bay Packers

With this pairing, the Cardinals go the Seattle route and try to land a coordinator who can at least compete with the elite offenses in the division from a defensive perspective. While Hafley is a defensive specialist, his aura may be what attracts Arizona, as it moves on from Jonathan Gannon.

Other options: Vance Joseph, Brian Flores, Mike LaFleur

9. Cleveland Browns

Best guess: Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator, Cleveland Browns

Last but, well, in this case, last, the Browns round out the cycle by retaining Jim Schwartz and making him head coach. I have seen McDaniel connected here and, while I imagine the Browns would like to hire McDaniel, the former Dolphins head coach would be placing his last shot at a head coaching gig on a franchise in which no coach has remained for an extended period of time. Personally, becoming the OC of the Lions, or, say, following Robert Saleh to the Titans for a year, seems way more appealing.

Again, I think McDaniel would be a major coup, especially with so much young talent on the roster (especially if McDaniel can keep Schwartz). But if I’m looking at this logically, I think young candidates with upside would be a little wary, and second-chance head coaches would also be worried about landing in a place with Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson among the quarterback options.

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