IPL playoffs scenarios: With 10 matches to go, LSG have 6.3% chance of progressing - odds for each team explained

Rishabh Pant (Image credit: BCCI/IPL)

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We look at the probabilities:

Team

Best case scenario

Worst case scenario

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2

RCB

Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one

Finish sole 4th. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games

100.0

68.8

GT

Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games

Finish tied 3rd with MI by losing all remaining games

100.0

82.8

PBKS

Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one

Finish sole 4th if they lose their remaining games

100.0

68.8

MI

Tied for the top spot at 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB, GT and PBKS lose their remaining games

Finish 6th by losing all remaining games

62.5

6.3

DC

Tied 2nd with RCB and PBKS on 17 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and PBKS lose theirs and GT loses one

Finish 7th by losing all the remaining games

35.9

3.1

LSG

Finish sole 4th on 16 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, and MI and DC each lose one

Finish 8th by losing all the remaining games

6.3

0.0

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How we arrive at the probabilities:

With 10 games remaining in the league stage, CSK, RR, SRH and KKR are already out of contention for the playoffs.GT, RCB and PBKS are now sure to make the playoffs, but MI still have a fair chance and DC relatively less so, while LSG have slim chances.There remain 1,024 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the six remaining in the race.There are 1,024 possible combinations of results remaining with 10 games to go.For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied.We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.For instance, GT finish in the top two in 848 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 82.8% chance of being first or second, singly or jointly.

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