Championship 2024-25: Final-Day Permutations

Saturday is the final day of the 2024-25 Championship season, with plenty still to be decided. We take a look through the various permutations, and ask the Opta supercomputer for its thoughts.

The final day of the season is always somewhat bittersweet.

The excitement of what could happen in the frantic last few moments of a long campaign is married with undertones of sadness that it will be gone for a few months once the final whistle is blown… unless you make the play-offs.

Saturday brings the 46th and final matchday of the 2024-25 Championship season, with all 24 teams kicking off simultaneously at 12.30 GMT, and heading into it, more than half the sides in England’s second tier still have something to play for.

Here, we run through the permutations for each of those teams on the final day of the Championship, and also see what the Opta supercomputer thinks will happen.

Title Race

Plymouth vs Leeds

Burnley vs Millwall

Leeds United and Burnley have already secured the two automatic promotion spots, booking their places in next season’s Premier League. However, the destination of the title is yet to be decided.

Both are level on 97 points heading into the final day, with Leeds enjoying the goal difference advantage by +13. That means a win for Leeds will almost certainly guarantee they win the title. They need to match Burnley’s result while avoiding an unlikely 13-goal swing.

Should both teams win on Saturday, they will join the pantheon of teams who have reached 100 points in a season, with Burnley possibly set to become the first team ever to reach three figures for points in the English Football League without winning the title.

These sides would follow Birmingham City, who have already got over 100 points in their stroll to the League One title, meaning that for the first time in the 137-year history of English league football, three teams will have reached 100 points in the same campaign.

Leeds travel to almost-certainly relegated Plymouth Argyle, but Daniel Farke’s men will fancy their chances of getting the three points they need to secure the league title, especially following their dominant 4-0 win over Bristol City on Monday in their last home game of the season. They have a 60.9% chance of beating Plymouth, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Should they slip up, though, Burnley will want to be ready to take advantage. Scott Parker’s side have been hard to beat this season, losing just two games and conceding only 15 goals, but they face an opponent with plenty still on the line in the form of play-off-chasing Millwall, who we’ll come to shortly.

The Clarets do have home advantage, though, and win the game in 65.8% of the supercomputer’s simulations. They only pip Leeds to the title 28.7% of the time, though. The 100-Point Club Championship How Many English Teams Have Reached 100 Points in a League Season?

Play-Off Push

Bristol City vs Preston

Coventry vs Middlesbrough

Burnley vs Millwall

Sheffield United vs Blackburn

Sheffield United and Sunderland have already cemented their places in third and fourth, respectively, but two play-off spots remain, with five teams tussling to be sat in them when the music stops on Saturday.

Bristol City were unable to seal their place on Monday after being thrashed at Leeds, but have another opportunity on the final day when they host relegation-threatened Preston North End. Liam Manning’s side have a point advantage over the two teams directly below them, but defeat on Saturday could see them finish as low as eighth. A win (56.3% chance with the supercomputer) will secure the Robins a play-off spot in fifth and a semi-final against Sunderland. A draw (22.6%) or a loss (21.1%) will mean they need favours from elsewhere.

Coventry City’s rise under Frank Lampard has been impressive, but they need one final push to keep their season alive. The Sky Blues head into the final day in sixth place on goal difference only, and are at home to another team who can still take their play-off spot in Middlesbrough.

It promises to be a titanic tussle at the Coventry Building Society Arena, with Michael Carrick’s side needing a victory to reach the play-offs, while also hoping Millwall and Blackburn Rovers fail to win. Boro sit in ninth place at the moment, two points behind Coventry, but they do have the best goal difference of all five teams trying to finish in the final two spots (+10, the best by at least +5).

A Coventry victory means they will seal a play-off spot assuming Millwall don’t also win by six or more goals at Burnley. A draw will mean Lampard’s men need both Millwall and Blackburn to fail to win, unless Bristol City lose, in which case Coventry will need only one of those two teams below them to fail to win. Defeat will see them miss out as Boro will overtake them.

The Sky Blues win in 48.5% of sims, while a draw occurs in 25.8%, and Middlesbrough get the three points they need in the remaining 25.7%.

Millwall sit agonisingly just outside the play-off places on goal difference (-4 behind Coventry) and have the toughest assignment on paper as they travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. Alex Neil’s men only win 15.7% of supercomputer simulations, though a draw could also be enough (18.5%).

If the Lions win, they will be hoping for one of Bristol City or Coventry to fail to do so, while a draw would require the Robins to lose by five or more against Preston, while also needing Blackburn to slip up for Millwall to sneak in.

Blackburn have a tricky-looking game at Sheffield United, but Valérien Ismaël’s men will be hoping the Blades have one eye on the play-offs and don’t go all out given they are already confirmed in third place. Rovers are a point off the play-offs but have a better goal difference than the three teams immediately above them, so for example, they will finish above Bristol City on GD if they win and the Robins only draw.

The supercomputer only sees Blackburn win at Bramall Lane 20.1% of the time, with a win meaning they reach the play-offs if two of Bristol City, Coventry and Millwall don’t get three points. A draw (21.9%) would not be enough, though, as the only way they can catch Coventry is if the Sky Blues lose, which means Middlesbrough will have won and gone above Blackburn as a result.

Overall, the Opta supercomputer sees Bristol City reach the play-offs in 89.8% of simulations, while Coventry do so in 66.4%. Middlesbrough are the next likeliest at 19.5%, ahead of Blackburn (12.6%) and Millwall (11.8%).

Relegation Scrap

Portsmouth vs Hull

Plymouth vs Leeds

West Brom vs Luton

Bristol City vs Preston

Derby vs Stoke

If you thought the play-off permutations were complicated, you might need a strong coffee before looking at the bottom of the table.

Cardiff City are already down, and Plymouth will join them in League One next season barring a remarkable turnaround on the final day. They sit three points from safety, but are -14 behind Luton Town in terms of goal difference, which would be quite the swing on one matchday. They also host top-of-the-table Leeds. Needless to say the Opta supercomputer doesn’t give Argyle a chance; they go down in all 10,000 (100%) of its final day simulations.

However, the last relegation spot can still be filled by any one of five teams.

The most at-risk are Hull City, who head into the final day in that dreaded 22nd place, and need to get something from their game at Portsmouth. They sit a point off safety, but have a better goal difference than Luton by +12 and Preston by +1, so a draw would be enough if either of those teams lose. A win will see the Tigers safe as they would definitely catch at least one of the four teams above them.

Hull beat Pompey in 27.6% of supercomputer sims, drawing in 26.8%, while a loss that would confirm relegation happens in 45.6%.

Luton have clawed their way out of trouble under Matt Bloomfield, winning their last three games to give themselves an excellent chance of avoiding a second consecutive relegation. They travel to West Brom on Saturday knowing they will only need something if Hull get at least a point at Portsmouth. Should they lose (52.1%), though, they will need a Pompey win to stay up.

A draw (24.5%) would mean Luton will only go down if Hull win and Derby County and Preston both get at least a point, while a win (23.4%) would mean another season in the Championship for the Hatters.

It could be a nervy day for Preston, whose form has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. Paul Heckingbottom’s side have won just one of their last 14 league games, failing to win any of their last seven and losing each of their last four. They head to Bristol City, who need the points to secure a play-off spot. If Preston lose at Ashton Gate (56.3%) and Hull and Luton both get at least a point, Preston will be down unless Stoke defeat Derby by a margin of at least four goals more than the Lancashire side lose by. A draw (22.6%) will mean safety for them unless both Hull and Luton win and Derby draw with Stoke City.

It gets a little more complicated above that, though, as Derby host Stoke with both still in danger. The Rams are three places but only one point above the drop zone, so if they lose (31.4%) they will go down if Hull win (or draw if Derby lose by three or more goals) and Preston and Luton get at least a point from their games.

A win for Derby (41.9%) will make Stoke slightly vulnerable, though the Potters would still only finish in the bottom three if Hull and Luton win while Preston get at least a point (a draw for Luton would also be sufficient in the unlikely scenario Stoke lose by six or more goals).

A draw between Derby and Stoke (26.7%) would see the away side safe, with Derby only going down if Preston, Luton and Hull all win.

The Opta supercomputer unsurprisingly sees Hull relegated most often (52.1% of simulations), while Luton are next likeliest with 29.2%. Preston get sucked into it in 15.1% of sims, while Derby (2.2%) and Stoke (1.4%) probably don’t have anything to worry about… probably.

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Work?

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.

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