It's already win or bust against Bayern for Alvaro Arbeloa: Real Madrid's rookie coach needs a Champions League miracle in Munich to keep his job at the Santiago Bernabeu

Alonso had barely pulled his car out of his parking spot at Valdebebas when Arbeloa backed into it. Everything moved so fast on January 12. Alonso, in fairness, had been facing the sack for a while. Still, his removal felt sudden. And no sooner had his departure been confirmed than did Arbeloa get appointed as interim.

There was no fanfare, no speculation, no signature 'tic tac' on El Chiringuito, just a pretty lifeless 'communicado oficial': "Real Madrid C.F. would like to announce that Alvaro Arbeloa will be the new first team coach."

Perhaps that was what was needed for Los Blancos. The final days of Alonso had been a real soap opera: clashes with Vinicius Jr, fan discontent, lifeless football. Maybe a coldhearted changing of the guard made sense. Arbeloa was that kind of character. His introductory press conference was brief. If Arbeloa had any true emotion attached to the club - or anything out of the ordinary - he didn't show it. This was a play-the-hits presser, perhaps best summed up by his opening statement.

"This club is about winning, winning, and winning again. Those demands are a reflection of the DNA that has brought us here, to this trophy-laden history. When I was a player, I learned those values from the people in that dressing room. They’re still there, and that’s what matters. We want to excite fans all over the world and help fill those trophy cabinets even more. That’s my job and what I’ll live for every day," he said.

Yet one key question at that press conference was never given a full answer: would this be a season-long appointment? Would Arbeloa stick around for a few weeks? Have Madrid tied him down for multiple years? Is this guy the future?

Arbeloa's response offered no further clues: "I’ve been at this club for 20 years, and I’ll be here as long as Real Madrid want me to be. This is my home, and it always will be."

His tenure began with nothing short of disaster. Arbeloa made it clear that he planned to give the kids he had coached at La Fabrica the chance to impress in the first team. A Copa del Rey tie with second-tier Albacete seemed a pretty kind place to put that promise into practice. Arbeloa handed out four debuts. Madrid lost 3-2 thanks to a 94th minute goal.

La Liga offered no further comforts. Madrid have spent the last three months ritualistically slipping out of the title race. They are nine points behind Barca, and even if they are to beat them in El Clasico next month, there is little else to suggest that Real can catch the Catalans.

The stats, then, suggest that Arbeloa has been a downgrade. In a tenure from the Club World Cup to early January, Alonso's Madrid stats read: 34 games, 24 wins, six defeats - far from damning, but simply not good enough at a club where the expectation is to win every single game (no matter how unrealistic that remit may be). He lost games to PSG, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Celta Vigo, Barcelona and Man City. None of those results are good. The loss against Celta, in particular, was damning. Being defeated at Anfield, and then in the Supercopa final to Barca, were body blows.

But most of those losses came to teams that were either as good as, or better than Los Blancos. Arbeloa, meanwhile, has been erratic. His stat line reads: 20 games, 13 wins, six losses, one draw. His win percentage is lower than Alonso's. Defeats have come at the hands of Bayern, Mallorca, Getafe, Osasuna, Benfica and Albacete.

Perhaps more revealing, too, is the way that the two managers have changed their modus operandi. Alonso was, in effect, a systems guy until the very end. Sure, he tinkered to allow for Vinicius Jr and Kylian Mbappe to play together. But he always insisted on a defensive work rate. He wanted a more controlled, steadier style of play. Like most modern managers, he gave individuals specific tasks and entrusted that they would execute them. It's what got him fired, in the end.

Funnily enough, it's with that kind of attitude that Arbeloa impressed in the Madrid academy. He was a 4-3-3 loyalist whose biggest achievements were the development of tempo-controlling footballers such as Thiago Pitarch - who has since broken into the first team. Arbeloa's teams wanted the ball, but they also played fast. They took chances, moved through the thirds, but retained a key structure.

But all of that soon went away. Arbeloa abandoned his 4-3-3 sensibilities and moved into the kind of 4-4-2 purgatory that had been the death of Carlo Ancelotti. In effect, Arbeloa conceded that Madrid cannot be coached as much as managed. There are a load of really good footballers here. Getting them to buy into some loose tactical ideas tends to be enough, such is their individual ability.

Being so laissez-faire, though, hasn't always yielded the best results. Of late, Madrid have looked languid, often short of ideas. The same patterns seem to play out every game, but they are being pretty easily countered. Teams have figured out that they can sit back, double up on Vinicius Jr., and hit on the break. A cold spell for Kylian Mbappe has no doubt also contributed. But the bottom line is that Madrid are not only predictable but also beatable.

And in the biggest game thus far, last week's 2-1 loss to Bayern, they were simply outplayed. The Bavarians just cut through them, and should have been up by three or four after an hour. It is a testament, in effect, to the right foot of Vinicius and work rate of Jude Bellingham that Los Blancos are still in this tie.

Yet this story sounds awfully familiar. These are the scenarios that Madrid seem to recover from. Their Champions League aura is perhaps a little overstated. There is more to football than a cocktail of belief and work rate. Still, an unwavering faith in the mythical powers of the badge, and a reverence for the club has seemed to carry Los Blancos late into Champions Leagues before.

Joselu turning into a Harry Kane-esque No.9, for example, cannot be explained by tactics alone. Thibaut Courtois' miraculous Champions League final showing against Liverpool in 2022 felt like something beyond comprehension. Rodrygo, who does not score headers, scored a header against Man City because, well, of course he did.

Bayern feels like a similar sort of scenario. Madrid are outmatched in defence, midfield and attack. Arbeloa admitted in a press conference that they will simply have to be better all over the pitch than they were last week. Yet these are the right conditions for one of those Madrid nights. All of the adversity has fallen into place at the right time.

Vinicius and Mbappe were both pretty poor on Friday in a draw with Girona. What better time to recapture their form than to overturn a 2-1 first leg deficit to the best team in Europe? Arbeloa knows the right stuff is here: "Real Madrid's history is built on overcoming difficult challenges like tomorrow."

And this really feels like it for Arbeloa. It is worth pointing out that all logic states that Real Madrid should lose this game. Bayern are on fire. Harry Kane should win the Ballon d'Or. Madrid are limping and out of every other competition.

However, every manager before Arbeloa has managed to coax these sorts of performances on big nights. Even Ancelotti, one of the greats, had his position called into question before he was able to conjure famous European victories. Arbeloa needs one of his own. And the conditions sort of feel right.

Arbeloa is saying all of the right things. He is the vibes guy who surrendered his principles to let everyone play a bit. He has talked about 'belief', 'remontadas' and 'comfort' playing in big games. In effect, he is following the Madrid Champions League playbook

Yet others in the past have been able to point to resumes to keep them in the job. Arbeloa doesn't have one. He has been thrown in, with no apparent timeframe, armed with few apparent credentials other than 'knowing the club'. It is not fair to ask a coach to pull off a miracle to save his job. But Madrid isn't fair at all.

This has to be Arbeloa's remontada, or there is little reason to keep him around.

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