Permutations for five-way battle

The race for the European places will go down to the wire in this year's Premier Division.

The league title, Europe and the relegation play-off have yet to be decided with just 11 days left in the season

While Shamrock Rovers could be crowned champions on Sunday by taking a draw in Derry, Europe is a much more complex matter.

Five sides are in the mix for at least two places, which are second and third in the table. That will be three places if the Hoops win the FAI Cup final on 9 November against Cork City.

It’s fair to say a number of teams will be cheering on Stephen Bradley’s men ahead of the showpiece occasion of the year.

Derry City, Shelbourne, Bohemians, St Patrick’s Athletic and Drogheda United will be hoping to see the double secured. If not, Cork City will play in the Europa League qualifying rounds while operating in the First Division in 2026.

Coincidentally, many of the teams will face off against each other in the final two series of games to produce multiple scenarios.

Derry and Shels are in pole position to claim a top three spot, while the remaining trio look to be battling it out for fourth.

The Candystripes and the Reds will be eager to book second place as that will become the Europa League spot if Shamrock Rovers lift the cup, with third and fourth offering Conference League football.

Let’s look at the scenarios:

Derry City

Sunday 26 October: Derry City v Shamrock Rovers

Saturday 1 November: Cork City v Derry City

It’s a simple equation for Tiernan Lynch and his players. They need just a single point from their final two matches

Crucially, one of those is against already-relegated Cork, a side which will be one week out from the cup final and may rest a number of their regular starters. Derry can even lose both matches and still make Europe if Bohemians fail to win both of their games.

Derry will be focused on bagging second spot in case it delivers Europa instead of Conference League football.

There is also the factor that Shamrock Rovers will be crowned champions in the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this week if City fail to win.

That would make it two years in a row where the league title is won in Derry, but not by the Candystripes.

In short, Derry will be there, the only question is which competition they qualify for.

Shelbourne

Sunday 26 October: Bohemians v Shelbourne

Saturday 1 November: Shelbourne v St Patrick’s Athletic

There is also a straight-forward scenario for Shels. One victory will be enough for the Drumcondra side to be in the qualifying rounds of Europe next summer. Two draws will secure their spot in the top four.

Ironically Joey O’Brien’s side must balance their Conference League match against KF Shkendija in North Macedonia this week as well as trying to return to the competition for the next edition.

A point will be enough for Shels providing their two opponents fail to win both matches. They will eliminate Bohs from the top-three race by avoiding defeat and likewise in their fixture with the Saints.

Shels will be eager to try to overcome Derry for second place so draws are not ideal either.

It gets complicated now from here on.

Bohemians

Sunday 26 October: Bohemians v Shelbourne

Saturday 1 November: Drogheda United v Bohemians

Bohs need to beat Shelbourne and better their result on the final day to have a chance of overtaking them in third spot and a guaranteed European spot. They’ll also need to rely on St Patrick’s Athletic failing to win two matches. It seems somewhat unrealistic. If Bohs don’t beat Shels, they can no longer finish third.

The more obvious path for Bohs is to win their final two matches knowing it will guarantee them fourth spot, given they currently have a one-point advantage.

The clash with Drogheda could be a shoot-out in the final match. Four points may be enough for Bohs but we won’t know that until the final week.

Then it’s just down to the rare scenario of Bohs cheering on Shamrock Rovers in the FAI Cup final.

St Patrick’s Athletic

Friday 24 October: St Patrick’s Athletic v Waterford

Saturday 1 November: Shelbourne v St Patrick’s Athletic

The Saints no longer have total control over the situation after failing to beat Bohemians last night.

Nevertheless, two victories may well be enough to bag fourth spot. It’s close to a must-win clash with Waterford on Friday.

Failure to beat the Blues will rule out the top three and they would need favours from other sides.

The key factor for Pat’s is Bohs dropping points. If they do, two victories will suffice for the Saints if they can maintain their goal difference over Drogheda United. They have a seven-goal lead as it stands.

Pat's could even sneak into third spot if they win both matches, Shels lose to Bohemians and then Drogheda get a result against Bohs.

Calculators will be needed soon.

Drogheda United

Friday 24 October: Galway United v Drogheda United

Saturday 1 November: Drogheda United v Bohemians

United were another side thrilled by Bohs and St Pat’s drawing last night.

Third place looks close to impossible at this stage, but two victories would give them an outstanding chance of fourth spot. Only two St Patrick's Athletic wins would deny them.

Four points might be sufficient if the Saints drop points in both matches and the win comes against the Gypsies in the crunch last-day encounter.

Having missed out on Europe due to a UEFA rule breach, losing out in the final days of the season would be just as hurtful for United.

Much of it will be irrelevant if Cork City cause an upset at Lansdowne Road by lifting the FAI Cup.

Regardless, the final fortnight of the season is set to provide many twists and turns with supporters around the country on tenterhooks.

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