Lions vs. 49ers preview, score prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers face off Monday night in a game that certainly means more to Detroit. Not only will they be seeking revenge from the NFC Championship Game last year (despite their public insistence they’re looking forward), but a win could propel them to the No. 1 seed overall in the NFC. Meanwhile, the 49ers have already been eliminated from playoff contention, so they’ll only have pride on the line on Monday night.

But our On Paper preview series doesn’t take into account intangibles like that. We look at the pure statistical matchup, as I believe that is the most important way to break down matchups each week. So while Detroit may have the motivational edge, do they have the statistical and talent edge? Let’s take a look in our Week 17 On Paper preview.

Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. 49ers pass defense (5th)

The Lions’ pass offense isn’t just dominant, it’s also trending in the right direction. Back in Week 11 against the Jaguars, Detroit’s passing attack ranked just 12th in DVOA. Now, they’re sixth and rank even higher when it comes to overall efficiency metrics. For the season, Detroit’s passing attack ranks:

Second in yards per attempt (8.6)

Second in passer rating (113.2)

Third in dropback EPA (0.265)

First in dropback success rate (52.9%)

If we take just the last six weeks, they’re even better:

Second in yards per attempt (8.5)

First in passer rating (120.0)

Second in dropback EPA (0.384)

First in dropback success rate (56.6%)

Every stat has seen a significant bump in the past two months outside of yards per attempt, which has remained high (8.6 to 8.5).

Detroit will head to San Francisco with their entire starting offensive line healthy. While that unit hasn’t lived up to their lofty expectations, they’ve been better in pass protection lately. For the season, they rank 15th in PFF pass blocking grade and 10th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.

The 49ers pass defense is their strongest unit. Even though the chart suggests they’re trending in the wrong direction in passer rating allowed, look at the yardage totals. They’ve only allowed 200 net passing yards once in the last two months.

For the season, they rank:

Third in yards per attempt (6.6)

Seventh in passer rating (86.1)

11th in dropback EPA (0.039)

13th in dropback success rate (45.8%)

There is some legitimacy to their recent struggles, however. In the last six games—in which they’ve gone 1-5—here’s where those numbers stack:

6.2 yards per attempt

24th in passer rating (98.9)

18th in dropback EPA (0.109)

20th in dropback success rate (48.4%)

They are still very stingy on the yardage they’re giving up, but teams are essentially learning to give what the 49ers are giving them, and that’s making opposing offenses very efficient.

Still, the 49ers have one of the best secondaries in football. They have PFF’s second-highest coverage grade in football (89.7), and three cornerbacks have at least seven pass breakups (Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, Charvarius Ward).

The biggest threat from the 49ers defense is still pass rusher Nick Bosa. While Leonard Floyd actually leads the team in sacks (8.5), Bosa’s 60 pressures (per PFF) dwarf Leonard’s 44, despite playing three fewer games. That said, if you can manage Bosa, San Francisco doesn’t have many more pass rushers that can hurt you. The 49ers rank just 18th in overall pass rush grade (67.9) and 14th in pass rush win rate, despite Bosa individually ranking top-10 in both metrics.

Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Deommodore Lenoir. It’s another premier matchup in the slot for St. Brown. Lenoir plays outside corner, but when the 49ers play nickel—which they do often—he slides into the slot. Lenoir’s 74.2 PFF coverage grade is 14th among all cornerbacks, while St. Brown’s 86.9 overall PFF grade is fifth among all receivers.

Advantage: Lions +1. Don’t expect another 300+ yards performance from Goff. The 49ers have only allowed 300 net passing yards a single time this season. However, Goff is a very patient quarterback and has no problem taking what the defense gives him. That’s the perfect gameplan this week against a 49ers defense that keeps everything in front of them. So as long as Detroit avoids turnovers, they should be able to dink and dunk their way down the field. I just don’t see an explosive performance this week.

Lions run offense (3rd) vs. 49ers run defense (24th)

The Lions rushing attack has been slowed a bit as of late, but last week was a step in the right direction—albeit against a pretty poor Bears run defense. For the season, this still remains one of the best rushing attacks in football. They rank 10th in yards per carry (4.6), but fourth in rush EPA (0.021), third in success rate (45.2%), first in adjusted line yards (5.12), seventh in PFF rush grade (87.6), and third in run blocking grade (77.7).

In the last six games, though, they’re at 4.4 yards per carry (15th), rank seventh in rush EPA (0.003), but still rank second in success rate (47.5%).

In other words, this is still a pretty darn efficient rushing attack, even if they’re not currently at their best. They’ll be without David Montgomery again this week, but a healthier Graham Glasgow returns to the lineup at left guard.

Continuing a theme here, the 49ers run defense was fine in the first half of the season, but they’ve been an absolute disaster in the last six games. Four of their last five opponents have rushed for at least 140 yards, and while the yards per carry have been kept low, the overall efficiency numbers are troubling for San Francisco. Here are their early season/late season splits:

Weeks 1-10:

4.3 yards per carry allowed (ninth)

-0.046 rush EPA (23rd)

42.6% rush success rate allowed (22nd)

Weeks 11-16

4.5 yards per carry allowed (19th)

0.009 rush EPA (27th)

44.9% rush success rate allowed (26th)

Remember, the Lions were able to rush for 182 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers last year (albeit with Montgomery). It’s clear San Francisco’s run defense issues have not been fixed since.

Player to watch: Fred Warner. Warner remains one of the best linebackers in football. His 31 run stops rank t-ninth among all NFL linebackers, and he has four forced fumbles—t-third among all defensive positions.

Advantage: Lions +2.5. This is a pretty clear advantage in the Lions’ favor. The only thing that really gives me any pause is the lack of David Montgomery and some recent struggles from the Lions offensive line. Still, Detroit should have no problem getting at least 100 yards this week.

49ers pass offense (8th) vs. Lions pass defense (4th)

Noticing a pattern with the 49ers yet?

What started as a promising follow-up to Brock Purdy’s 2023 MVP run has turned into a nightmare finish for the former Mr. Irrelevant. Outside of a strong performance against a broken Bears team and last week’s playing-from-behind game, Purdy’s last six weeks have been terrible. Over that stretch, Purdy ranks:

21st in passer rating (89.3)

16th in yards per attempt (7.4)

t-24th in touchdowns (five)

24th in dropback EPA (-0.020)

25th in dropback success rate (42.0%)

A big part of the issue is injuries. The offensive line is currently in shambles. Star left tackle Trent Williams is on IR, and now his backup is, too. They could realistically be on LT4 this week. The 49ers will also be missing their starting left guard.

As a result, the 49ers have allowed the ninth-highest pressure rate this season (per NFL Pro). And while Purdy has the escapability to create plays outside the pocket, his efficiency has been terrible when pressured. His -51.6 EPA when pressured ranks 16th in the NFL and his 73.8 passer rating in such situations ranks 18th.

Still, the 49ers have a lot of dangerous weapons in the passing game who can test Detroit’s secondary. Jauan Jennings (11th in PFF grade), George Kittle (first), and Deebo Samuel (42nd) are all dangerous.

If you’re worried that injuries have caught up to the Lions, you may want to skip this section. The last four weeks have been a struggle for the Lions pass defense, and the problems are multifaceted. Here’s a look at where the Lions rank over the last four weeks:

30th in dropback EPA (0.252)

20th in dropback success rate (47.9%)

t-last in passer rating allowed (109.2)

t-13th in sacks (eight)

The pass rush has taken a clear hit, the coverage hasn’t been good, and it’s certainly concerning moving forward.

Now, Detroit is starting to get healthier on defense, and maybe more importantly, they’re gaining reps in the new normal without Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis, and plenty of others. Ifeatu Melifonwu looks to be a big part of the defense going forward, but he’s still getting his feet wet. Jalen Reeves-Maybin returns this week and could give Detroit’s second level a coverage boost. But... it’s all still coming together.

Player to watch: George Kittle. For the season, the Lions actually have the second-best pass defense against tight ends by DVOA. But the linebacker injuries have piled up, and that could mean a big week for Kittle. Detroit could counter with Melifonwu or Brian Branch instead of a linebacker, but Kittle has 100 yards in two of his last three contests.

Advantage: Draw. I can’t in good faith be optimistic about the Lions pass defense right now. It hasn’t been good, and the 49ers have enough weapons to give them a handful. At the same time, San Francisco is also a mess with injuries right now, and that patchwork offensive line could have its hands full against Detroit’s high blitz rate. This one could go either way.

49ers run offense (13th) vs. Lions run defense (10th)

The 49ers entire identity surrounds their run game, so it’s not surprising that their recent struggles have resulted in losses in five of their last six games. They’ve been held below 80 rushing yards in four of their last seven games, and held below 4.0 yards per carry in four of those games, as well.

Over the last seven games, the 49ers rank:

19th in rush PEA (-0.099)

24th in rush success rate (38.2%)

20th in yards per carry (4.2)

The reason for this huge drop off? Again, injuries. Not only has the offensive line been a mess, but their backfield has been decimated. Christian McCaffrey has missed 11 games, Elijah Mitchell missed the entire season, Jordan Mason has missed three games, and all three are on injured reserve. Last week, rookie Isaac Guerendo was out with an injury, and his status for this week is unclear.

Regardless, don’t be surprised if San Francisco has to rely on Samuel in the backfield. In the past three weeks, he’s had a total of 12 carries for 51 yards.

There’s been a lot of up and down with the Lions’ run defense this year—likely due to injuries—but they saw a nice rebound last week despite being without McNeill.

For the season, they’ve only allowed five teams to eclipse 100 rushing yards and seven of 15 opponents have gone over the league average of 4.4 yards per carry.

In terms of overall efficiency, Detroit remains a strong run defense. They rank 17th in yards per carry allowed (4.4) but ninth in rush EPA (-0.132) and fourth in success rate (36.3%).

Player to watch: Dominick Puni. One silver lining in the 49ers’ season is their rookie class has been solid. Third-round pick Dominick Puni has been their starting right guard all season, and he currently ranks third among all NFL guards in run blocking grade (84.4). If San Francisco finds success, it may be on the right side of the offensive line, although right tackle Colton McKivitz is also dealing with an injury right now.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Detroit still has a lot to prove with their run defense given the injuries along the defensive front, but San Francisco’s situation is far worse.

Last week’s prediction:

On Paper notched another win last week, moving the preview to 13-2 overall and 10-5 against the spread. I probably should’ve just followed the numbers (Lions +6 advantage) and picked a bigger advantage than the score I went with (34-27 Lions), but I do think the bulk of the analysis was spot on.

In the comment section, we had another perfect prediction. Bagels are for champions nailed the final score with their 34-17 prediction.

I’m on semi-vacation this week, so I don’t have photoshop to offer you. But given your awesome username, I will instead offer a photo of a bagel platter I am eating today.

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a +5 advantage, which is relatively strong. More importantly, I have them with the edge in three of four matchups. That leaves the 49ers with fewer outs to pull off the upset. The only path I see to victory is for Brock Purdy to stand on his head the way he did in the second half of the NFC Championship Game (13-of-16 for 174 yards + 49 yards rushing in the final two quarters). But with their beat-up offensive line and overall efficiency down this year, I just don’t see it. Lions 34, 49ers 21.

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