Mexico vs Uruguay Predictions: Jimenez to strike in low-scoring draw

Our betting expert expects a tight contest to finish level, with Raul Jimenez the player most likely to break the deadlock.

Best Predictions for Mexico vs Uruguay

Under 2.5 goals @ -143 with bet365

Tie @ +240 with bet365

Raul Jimenez to score first @ +600 with bet365

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Get more sports bonuses with the bet365 promo code

Find out how to claim even more in sports bonuses with our guide to the best sportsbook promos in the US

Read our expert’s view on the best betting apps to use in the US in 2025

Friendly to produce few goals

Uruguay have been managed by Marcelo Bielsa since 2023. The ex-Leeds boss is well known for his high-risk, attacking football. However, following a bright start to his reign, Bielsa has struggled to successfully implement that.

Seven of La Celeste’s nine matches so far in 2025 have produced two or fewer goals, while none have finished with more than three. With Luis Suarez now retired, and Darwin Nunez injured, there are no convincing strikers in this squad. Midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta and defender Jose Maria Gimenez are the only players in it to have scored five or more international goals.

Mexico were likely hoping a few young attacking players could make an impact ahead of next summer’s tournament. Six of their last nine matches have also ended with under 2.5 goals, and that bet seems to offer value here.

Mexico vs Uruguay Prediction 1: Under 2.5 goals @ -143 with bet365

All square in Torreon

On the surface, these two sides appear to be evenly matched. Both managers may use the game to experiment a little, and it could develop into a tight friendly that struggles to get going.

Three of Mexico’s last four matches have finished level. Those games were all against fellow 2026 World Cup participants, with their clashes against Japan and South Korea in September also ending all square. While their record against nations in their region remains strong, Javier Aguirre’s team have been less impressive against sides from elsewhere in the world.

Nine of Uruguay’s last 18 games have also finished level after 90 minutes. They’re currently on a five-match unbeaten run, which Bielsa will be keen to extend as he wants to build some momentum heading into the World Cup.

Mexico vs Uruguay Prediction 2: Tie @ +240 with bet365

Jimenez to break the deadlock

Both sides have issues converting chances in the final third. Uruguay’s problems in that department saw them hand a debut to Rodrigo Aguirre, who had already turned 30 at the end of last year. The journeyman striker has done a solid job, but he’s clearly a level or two below former Uruguayan forwards, such as Suarez and Edinson Cavani.

The most convincing forward who could feature on Sunday is Raul Jimenez. He has scored more than twice as many international goals as any other player in either squad. The Fulham frontman has netted 43 times for his country overall, and this has already been his most prolific calendar year for El Tri.

While his club form hasn't been great, Jimenez has scored eight goals in 12 Mexico appearances in 2025. That suggests the 34-year-old is capable of turning it on as he joins up with his national side again. With an implied probability of 14.3%, he is the outstanding choice to score first in this friendly.

Mexico vs Uruguay Prediction 3: Raul Jimenez to score first @ +600 with bet365

Our analysis: Form of both teams

Score prediction - Mexico 1-1 Uruguay

Goalscorers prediction - Mexico: Raul Jimenez - Uruguay: Giorgian de Arrascaeta

Mexico won the Concacaf Gold Cup in the summer with a 2-1 final victory over the United States. They are now building up to a World Cup that they will co-host with a series of friendly matches.

Recent results have not been great, and they are winless in four fixtures since their last competitive game. They were thrashed 4-0 by Colombia before holding Ecuador 1-1 in October.

As for Uruguay, they made it to the World Cup with ease. Their final qualifiers in September served up a 3-0 win over Peru, and a 0-0 draw against Chile. Since then, they’ve played two low-key friendlies, beating the Dominican Republic and Uzbekistan by one-goal margins.

Probable lineups for Mexico vs Uruguay

Mexico expected lineup: Malagon, K. Alvarez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Sanchez, E. Alvarez, Pineda, Lozano, Alvarado, Jimenez

Click here to read article