The case for and against every team in the AL East

The American League East was the best division in baseball last season and could be even stronger in 2026.

Teams in the AL East won a combined 429 games last year – eight more than any other division – and three of them made the postseason. This year, FanGraphs has the East projected for more total victories (419) than any other division, with four out of five teams having a greater than 50 per cent chance at a playoff spot.

The math checks out. The Blue Jays followed up a World Series appearance with an aggressive off-season. The Yankees should score as much as anyone. The Red Sox look a little lighter in some areas, but stronger in others. The Orioles beefed up their lineup and will be scary if they can pitch. And the Rays always seem to find a way to get the most out of what they have, which includes one of the game’s brightest young stars.

With the new MLB season nearly upon us, here is a look at a case for and a case against each team in what will be one of baseball’s most intriguing divisions.

Baltimore Orioles

Acquistions: Pete Alonso, Chris Bassitt, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, Taylor Ward, Blaze Alexander, Andrew Kittredge, Leody Taveras

Losses:Grayson Rodriguez, Jorge Mateo, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sanchez, Kade Strowd

The case for: Adding Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward to their already powerful batting order means the Orioles should plate runs in bunches in 2026. Their lineup has plenty of power and won’t give opposing pitchers many free outs one through nine. Their prolific prospect pipeline also gives them both quality and quantity in their depth, allowing them to patch the inevitable holes that pop up over the course of 162 games.

Having Gunnar Henderson over a shoulder injury that caused a drop in production last season shouldn’t hurt, either. He was fifth in MLB in fWAR in 2024 (7.9) when healthy.

The case against: Kyle Bradish looked great after returning from Tommy John surgery in August and Trevor Rogers turned in a 1.81 ERA last season in 18 outings. However, pitchers in their first full season back from TJ are always a question mark and Rogers’ ERA was 4.92 the season before, so what are the Orioles really getting in either case?

Baltimore has the depth in their rotation behind those two but only Chris Bassitt (3.96) had an ERA under 4.00 last year. The O’s should be able to score, but preventing other teams from scoring is half the battle.

Boston Red Sox

Acquisitions: Ranger Suarez, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Danny Coulombe

Losses: Alex Bregman, Richard Fitts, Brandon Clarke, Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, Jordan Hicks, Steven Matz, Dustin May, Rob Refsnyder, Jhostynxon Garcia, Liam Hendriks, Nathaniel Lowe

The case for: The Red Sox are leaning hard into run prevention for 2026. Their rotation is solid, headlined by Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet, and their outfield defence should be among the best in the majors. Top prospect Roman Anthony is also looking to build off an impressive first half-season.

According to MLB statistician Sarah Langs, Anthony was the youngest player to ever homer for Team USA at the WBC. The 21-year-old showed up to camp seemingly having put on more muscle and appears ready to terrorize the AL East for a long time.

The case against: Alex Bregman’s departure from the Red Sox raised some eyebrows. According to reports, the team wanted him back and he wanted to stay, yet he joined the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $175 million deal. This left Boston with a big hole at third base and necessitated a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers for Caleb Durbin.

Bregman’s absence underscores the BoSox’s lack of a true aircraft carrier on offence and relying on Anthony to shoulder that load is a lot to put on someone so young. Boston’s offence shouldn’t be much worse than average in 2026, but will it be enough to make them a true World Series contender? They haven’t won a playoff series in four seasons and after some questionable asset management in recent years, the pressure is on this season.

New York Yankees

Acquisitions: Ryan Weathers, Paul DeJong, Randal Grichuk, Rafael Montero

Losses: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter Jr., Ian Hamilton, Jonathan Loaisiga, Austin Slater

The case for: With the exception of the back end of their bullpen, the Yankees kept most of their 2025 team intact by devoting much of their off-season attention to retaining outfielder Cody Bellinger.

That group won 94 games and scored the most runs in MLB led by MVP Aaron Judge, who’s showing no signs of slowing down into his mid-30s. Adding Gerrit Cole back to their rotation sometime in May should make the Yankees a serious threat to reclaim the divisional crown and be a tough out in the postseason.

The case against: Giancarlo Stanton’s .944 OPS last season was his highest since winning the MVP with the Miami Marlins in 2017. The trouble is Stanton only played in 77 games and is dealing with severe tennis elbow in both arms this spring. He’s far from the only veteran in the Bronx who has battled injury in recent years.

Staying healthy is paramount for every team, but will be especially important for a veteran-heavy Yankee team with goals of getting back to the World Series.

Tampa Bay Rays

Acquisitions:Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux, Ben Williamson, Cedric Mullins, Jacob Melton, Jake Fraley

Losses:Brandon Lowe, Shane Baz, Josh Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, Jake Mangum, Mason Montgomery, Adrian Houser, Christopher Morel, Kameron Misner

The case for: Junior Caminero is only 22 years old and isn’t just on the cusp of superstardom. He’s already there. Acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in November of 2021 for essentially nothing, Caminero hit 45 home runs last season and comes into this year with momentum as one of the stars of the World Baseball Classic, slashing .350/.409/.850 in six games.

The Rays’ rotation also has an intriguing top three of Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot and Shane McClanahan that could be among the AL’s best if McClanahan returns to form.

The case against: Like most years, the Rays’ roster is largely a group of misfit toys assembled from trades, waiver claims and shrewd drafting. They’re as good as anyone at finding value where others don’t, but that approach often makes their margin for error as tight as their budget.

It’s been nearly 1,000 days since McClanahan threw a pitch in a regular-season MLB game and Tampa’s lineup lacks thump behind Caminero. Even if he ends up being one of the best hitters in baseball for years to come, he can’t do it alone. In a tough division, the Rays are going to need a lot to go right to get back to the postseason.

Toronto Blue Jays

Acquisitions: Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Taylor Rogers, Cody Ponce, Jesus Sanchez, Chase Lee

Losses: Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Seranthony Dominguez, Joey Loperfido, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ty France

The case for: The Blue Jays came within a couple feet of winning the World Series a few different times last fall and most of what got them there is back for 2026.

Dylan Cease brings enormous upside to a starting rotation that is even deeper than last year’s, albeit some injuries. The loss of Bo Bichette could easily be offset in the aggregate by the arrival of Kazuma Okamoto’s bat and the defensive bump of moving Andres Gimenez to short full-time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has fully blossomed into the superstar and leader the Jays had hoped for, and they have options up and down their roster to deal with inevitable injures or regression from some of last year’s key contributors.

Sometimes, it feels like teams that came as close as the Jays did may have missed their one chance at winning it all. But with Guerrero signed for eternity and the front office handing out several multi-year deals in the off-season, it doesn’t feel like the Jays’ window is anywhere near closed.

The case against: The bullpen was the Jays’ weakest point in 2025 and ultimately cost them Game 7. And while Jeff Hoffman did save 33 games and finish a league-high 59, many were wondering if Toronto would be able to upgrade the ninth inning and move Hoffman into a setup role where he had previously excelled with the Phillies.

Click here to read article