The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions, Round 24: Top four up for grabs and a bona fide early elimination final

And so at last we reach the end of the line.

Six teams safely locked into the eight. Our home qualifying finalists all but secured. But there couldn’t be more at stake as the final round of the home-and-away season dawns.

Who has the most to lose? Definitely one of the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle, whose Sunday night clash will – barring an enormous double stuff-up from Gold Coast – determine who reaches finals and who kisses their season goodbye.

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But there’s also everything on the line for Collingwood and the Suns, who face Friday night contests in their quest for the double chance – and while Brisbane and Hawthorn on Sunday night doesn’t quite have the September jeopardy the AFL would have been hoping for when they scheduled it, both sides will know exactly what they must do to squeeze into the top four … and know defeat means an elimination final, and probably one on the road.

As for tipsters, if you need to pick a roughie or two to have any chance of snatching top spot in your own competition, there are a few outside options as the rest of the league waves 2025 goodbye!

AFL tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Get your tips in here.

Tim Miller

Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Gold Coast

You can basically divide Round 24 into three categories: stone cold blockbusters, top-eight banana skins, and Saturday slop.

Oh, and Essendon play twice in seven days. Pencil them in for losses to Carlton and Gold Coast on either side and let’s move on.

Saturday is easy – top two might be all but sealed, but neither Adelaide nor Geelong are losing to North Melbourne or Richmond respectively, even on the road (or in the Cats’ case, at their September home ground of the MCG!) Sydney haven’t risen to anywhere near those heights in 2025, but beating West Coast would give Dean Cox a winning season in his first at the helm despite all the struggles – and thumping them by 124 points or more would get their percentage up to 100. Don’t discount it.

I have a distinct feeling Friday night is going to bring trouble for one of Collingwood or Gold Coast. In the former’s case, Melbourne are a tricky opposition for the out-of-form Pies – they nearly beat them on King’s Birthday, after all – but the looming end to their season and last week’s underwhelming effort against Hawthorn makes the Magpies a pretty safe bet with top four on the line.

Nevertheless, I have a sneaky feeling either they or the Suns, who face Port Adelaide in Ken Hinkley’s farewell game with their top-eigh spot still on the line, will either be beaten or pushed very close to the line. I’m still tipping the Suns … but the Power love rising to the occasion at random times, and the Suns are 0 from 12 at the Adelaide Oval. This won’t be easy.

The same goes for GWS on Sunday against a St Kilda team buoyed by Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s signature. If ever a club missing finals had a reason to give 1000 per cent! I’m still backing the Giants, even without Jesse Hogan and a cluster of other first-choice names … but I guess we’ll get to see whether NWM can keep up his off-contract form now that his immediate playing future is secure.

As for the rest of Sunday … it’s blockbuster city.

Finishing the round, top four is on the line for Brisbane and Hawthorn – much to the AFL’s annoyance, who surely scheduled this for Sunday night thinking it’d be a win-and-you’re-in-type scenario for both. This is my upset tip for the round – the Lions have been ordinary at the Gabba all season, and the Hawks have won five of their last six against them, even if that loss was only three months ago. Plus, it validates my pre-season tip that the Lions wouldn’t make the top four if the Hawks get up.

I think 40,000-plus will get to Marvel Stadium for the Bulldogs’ ‘prelimination final’ against Fremantle. The stakes couldn’t be higher, the Dogs are offering $5 one-game memberships, and it’s Sunday afternoon, the best time to go to the footy.

I told Liam Salter last week I’d be tipping the Dockers in this game to try and reverse-mozz my own mob, but you know what? I just can’t do it. Loyalty all the way – carn the ‘Scray.

Dem Panopoulos

Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Gold Coast

You smell that? AFLW has started, the Premier League’s off and running, the NFL’s around the corner and cricket’s a stone’s throw away from starting.

We must be approaching finals footy.

And this final round, 10 games in length, will act as a conduit between a lot of irrelevance with the most relevant footy we get all year.

Harry McKay should see Thursday as another opportunity to kick a career-high in a big Carlton win over Essendon, while the Magpies should feel comfortable in getting back on track against the Demons.

A Friday night send-off for Ken Hinkley in front of a big crowd feels about right – one would expect the Power to come out absolutely firing to have on last crack for Ken. This is simply a must-win for the Suns, though, and they’ll get it done.

The Crows enter September as the minor premiers and off the back of a big win this week, while the Cats sit a spot below and should approach finals the same way. North Melbourne and Richmond don’t stand a chance, while Sydney should finish off the season strongly on the road against the one-win West Coast.

Then we get to Sunday.

The Saints are looking for five wins in a row, but GWS are playing for a home final – this game is a non-negotiable. Do they welcome back couple of key players? The result is irrelevant for St Kilda – re-signing Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was their biggest victory of the season.

You've always gotta keep an eye on Wanganeen-Milera from that range ????#AFLSaintsGiants pic.twitter.com/S8lPRHp10i — AFL (@AFL) April 13, 2025

Sunday afternoon brings the round’s piece de resistance. Two teams that love to leave it to the final day to decide whether they’ll play finals or not. I believe in the Dockers more, but it’s so hard to go past the Bulldogs at Marvel. Dogs or Dockers, Dogs or Dockers, it’s the hardest choice of the season.

If Fremantle wins, they’ll win their first final. I’m going with the heave ho.

Hawthorn have played at the Gabba three times since 2008, and the last was six years ago. Quite the fixture quirk.

The absence of Eric Hipwood for the Lions might be underrated. He plays the sort of “false nine” role we see in round-ball football and his function is pretty important to free up Logan Morris. Now Morris isn’t supported – not ably at least. I’m tipping Hawthorn.

Finally, Gold Coast and Essendon are playing on Wednesday. I’m not sure about you all, but the NBL Blitz starts that evening and I’ll probably choose to go to an August cricket training session rather than watch Ben King try and break Fred Fanning’s record to win the Coleman.

Liam Salter

Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Gold Coast

It’s all a little anticlimactic, isn’t it?

This time last week, only one team was locked into finals. But heading into this weekend, there’s only one genuine spot left – and Tim and I get to suffer through that rollercoaster. We’ll get to that.

Yes, I hear you cry, the Suns aren’t locked in either. Sure, I’ll say, but be real: neither of their two games provides much intrigue. Their terrible record at Adelaide Oval and Port farewelling some club legends make Friday night’s clash a little interesting, but nowhere close enough for me to back an upset.

And next Wednesday’s opponents are, well, Essendon. (That simple fact benefits the Blues, too, who’ll finish the year on a high on Thursday night).

Most of the premiership aspirants have easy enough matches … right? The biggest banana peel awaits Collingwood – the Dees won’t make it easy – but a crucial four points for the Pies is certainly not beyond their grasp.

Premiership favourites (even without a very, very dumb Izak Rankine) Adelaide won’t face any trouble at all against Harry Sheezel and 21 others, while Geelong will comfortably put an end to the Tigers’ season. The Eagles, for what it’s worth, won’t be beating Sydney either. Enough said.

And then it gets fun.

The least important of Sunday’s games is ostensibly the opener, but the Saints can still have a bit of fun frustrating the Giants. Ross Lyon’s men will be on a high after their excellent news earlier in the week (hell yes, Nasiah!), but you wouldn’t think GWS would be dropping this one.

Barring a hilariously brutal series of results, neither Hawthorn or Brisbane can drop out of finals – sorry, AFL fixturing team, for the round’s grand finale being ruined. It’s almost a net-negative for the Lions to be playing at the Gabba, and an increasing injury list remains a worry. I’ll back them, but the Hawks remain an appealing upset choice.

And – deep, deep breath – Freo have decided to torture me again. Why do things the easy way?

They’re absolutely a good enough club to bounce back from last week’s calamity, but the Bulldogs are an incredibly potent force, in better form and I’m frightened of Marcus Bontempelli after his ridiculously good performance last time we played at Marvel.

I’m ready to swallow the world’s hardest pill to see my club fall down at the final hurdle. Sigh.

(Or, is that reverse psychology? Ask me Monday).

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