Football league permutations - the penultimate round

With two rounds remaining across all divisions of the Allianz Football League, there are perhaps too many possible permutations to fully take note of them all - a realisation that may have only struck us after agreeing to write this article.

But it's worth sifting through the more feasible - and some unfeasible - ones, as we take stock ahead of the penultimate round.

DIVISION 1

League finalists

Theoretically, four teams can still reach the league final, though the Rossies' chances have narrowed considerably after their heavy loss to Dublin.

On form, Donegal are unbackable favourites to pitch up in Croke Park on the final weekend of March. They're already sitting on top spot with nine points and their remaining games are away to Roscommon and Monaghan.

Barring an improbable turnaround in form, the Ulster champions are bound for a first Division 1 decider since 2007.

The Kerry-Mayo game has been billed as a shootout to join Donegal in the final, though the visitors are in a stronger position in that regard.

Should Jack O'Connor's side (currently on seven points) win on Saturday evening, they could still need to get a result away to relegation-threatened Armagh on the final day to assure themselves of a league final place - with Mayo (now on eight points) hosting Roscommon at the same time.

Roscommon can still wind up in a league final by beating Donegal and Mayo in the final two rounds, though they would need Kerry to drop points in their last two games also.

Relegation battle

Division 1, as we know, is not really for winning, it's for sticking around in.

There's still some complexity at play here, and any one of five teams could yet go down - yes, including the Rossies.

For starters, Monaghan are not officially dead yet, though the RIP notice has been proofed and prepared and the supporters are gathered by the bedside.

If Gabriel Bannigan's side win their remaining two games, while Armagh and Galway both lose theirs - they could afford one Armagh draw - then Monaghan could execute an act of escapology on a par with Houdini or that time Harry Redknapp went back to Portsmouth.

They have, however, shown no indication that they're capable of this - in 2026, at any rate.

On form, the more probable scenario is that Galway will win in Inniskeen and move to six points - an outcome which will remove Armagh's margin for error entirely.

The Dublin-Armagh tussle has been billed as a quasi-relegation play-off.

If Kieran McGeeney's side lose for the fifth time in a row - on a 4-15 to 0-26 scoreline if recent form is any guide - then they'll be relegated should Galway get a result, as expected, in Monaghan the following day.

An Armagh victory in Dublin - where they beat the Dubs in the 2022 league and last year's championship - will make things considerably more complicated.

That will lift them level with the Dubs on four points and push Ger Brennan's side into the relegation spots on the head-to-head metric if Galway get something in Monaghan.

It will also mean that Galway aren't officially safe, and nor will Roscommon be if they were to lose at home to Donegal.

The Dubs head to Salthill in the final round, while Armagh host Kerry. Brennan's side would need to better Armagh's result on the last day should they lose this Saturday.

Were both Dublin and Armagh to win on the final day, one is looking at a potential three-way tie - or even, a four-way tie if Roscommon lose both their matches - on six points.

In that case, it would hinge on score difference, where Armagh are especially well placed. Bizarrely, they boast a +3 score difference despite losing four of their five matches, and it would only improve in this scenario.

Galway are currently -3, though we note for the purposes of this scenario that Monaghan have been losing by an average margin of 11 points in the league so far.

In such a four-way tie on six points, the Rossies would likely be doomed given that their score difference (currently -2) took a huge hit the last day and it would only worsen in this scenario on the back of two losses. However, a lot has to go wrong for them for this to happen...

Flipping back a bit, if Armagh draw in HQ, they could yet survive on score difference ahead of Dublin by beating Kerry at home so long as the Dubs lose in Salthill.

DIVISION 2

Promotion situation

It's generally assumed to be a three-way battle for promotion, though Louth have a big chance to upset that particular narrative at home to Derry in Ardee today.

Derry, Meath and Cork are currently locked on eight points at the top, with Gavin Devlin's team on six points after successive wins over Tyrone and Cavan.

Cork's reign as flavour of the month lasted all of a week. They came crashing to earth with a dull thud in Round 5, almost banging their heads off Derry's walls in the process.

The 20-point shellacking has pushed them outside the promotion places on score difference (-7 now, despite winning four from five games).

On the flipside, it has placed Derry in an intimidatingly strong position. If they can navigate the tricky game in Louth this weekend, they will surely be on a fast-track back to Division 1. Their final game is at home to Cavan, where they'll be heavily favoured to take two points.

If Louth can halt Derry's gallop, it could complicate things heavily. In that scenario, Ciarán Meenagh's team might fall to fourth in the table were both Cork and Meath to win. They would find themselves behind Louth on score difference.

Wins for Louth and Tyrone on Saturday will leave things rather congested, with three teams on eight points and the latter on seven.

Meath have a chance to kill off Tyrone's promotion chances altogether on Saturday.

Most pundits had blithely assumed that Tyrone would be back in the top tier faster than you can say 'bear-pit' but their form has been alarmingly sloppy this spring. The loss to Derry may not have been too shocking - the draw with Kildare and the loss to Louth on the other hand...

Anything short of a win in Croke Park will certainly end Tyrone's promotion hopes, and they're a long shot in any case. Even if they win on Saturday, victories for Derry and Cork this weekend would consign them to Division 2 for another campaign.

Relegation battle

The relegation battle here is rather more clear-cut. Kildare's early promise has curdled badly in the subsequent rounds and they were outclassed in the live televised game at home to Meath a fortnight ago.

Worse again, they could fall into the relegation places this weekend, if Sunday's game in Tullamore goes to form and Cavan overcome Offaly, while the Lilywhites fail to win in Páirc Uí Rinn.

That's no guarantee but Offaly are coming in off the back of heavy losses to Derry and Tyrone. Kildare could remove that problem by winning one of their remaining games against Cork - who may be fragile after the Derry trip - or Louth in Round 7.

However, they won't be favourites for either of them. More and more, it looks like Kildare's second-half fade-out against Cavan could prove very significant. Perhaps Dermot McCabe, after all his ill-luck, could get out of jail.

DIVISION 3

Promotion situation

Across all the divisions, no one is more 'on the goal-line' than Down, who are the only county to have won all five matches.

Conor Laverty's team were brutally unlucky to get relegated from Division 2 on six points last year and after their championship performance, it was suspected that they'd be far too good for their surroundings this spring.

Some of the games have been closer than one might have anticipated - narrow wins over Limerick and the pointless Fermanagh - but they have a 100% record.

They sit top on 10 points, with a three-way tie for second on six points between Wexford, Clare and Westmeath.

Wexford - promoted from Division 4 last year - currently occupy second on score difference (+13) though their remaining games are against Clare (+8) and Westmeath (+6).

If Wexford beat Clare in Ennis on Sunday, it will confirm Down's promotion regardless of anything else, because it means only one other team could potentially join them on 10 points.

Westmeath, now in fourth, had been favourites for promotion, but they were rocked by a nine-point loss to Laois last time out.

Mark McHugh's side host relegation-threatened Limerick and could do with a sizable win to boost them in the score difference stakes, as much as anything else.

Laois aren't out of the promotion hunt but realistically need to win their remaining two games and hope all three teams above them fail to do so. Fermanagh this weekend are highly beatable - Down in the last round, less so.

Relegation battle

They only lost by three points in Newry in Round 5 but it's been a wretched campaign for Fermanagh, who are almost certain to be demoted to the fourth tier.

Last year's messy transfer saga has left them - and Derrygonnelly - without the three Jones brothers (and helped Leitrim Gaels to a first ever county title, but that's by the by).

In Declan Bonner's first season, they've lost their first five league games. The manager is staying upbeat, insisting that a strong finish to the league could turn things around quickly.

With games remaining against Laois and Limerick, the best they can manage is four points, which would leave them level with Sligo, against whom they are losing out on the head-to-head.

Their only theoretical chance is if Limerick - on three points - drew with Westmeath this weekend, leaving a possibility of a three-way tie on four points.

Even at that, Fermanagh's score difference is far inferior to both Limerick and Sligo... basically, we're wasting our time here, survival isn't feasible.

But who'll go down alongside Fermanagh?

Tailteann Cup runners-up Limerick are currently in the relegation spot on three points, though, vitally, their final game is at home to Fermanagh, who, as we've noted, have lost everything so far.

Sligo are one point above them on four points. It's been a testing start for the Eamonn O'Hara/Dessie Sloyan regime.

They've won two from five, beating Fermanagh and Limerick but shipped bad losses on the road to Laois and Wexford. The good news is their remaining games are in Markievicz Park, where they're two from two.

The bad news is they're against Down and Clare, one of whom is virtually promoted and the other is chasing promotion hard.

If they can't muster points in either of the games, they'll have to pray Fermanagh pull out some sort of result against Limerick. Still, Sligo's own home form could come up trumps for them.

DIVISION 4

Promotion situation

Frankly, it's all a jumble at the top of Division 4, with a bewildering array of possible combinations for promotion.

It would have been all so much simpler had Carlow maintained their hot early form and not lost to the surprise contenders Longford in Pearse Park the last day.

That would practically have assured Joe Murphy's team of a league final place and a spot in Division 3.

It's still in their hands at this stage. They sit top on eight points, one clear of Longford, with Tipperary and Wicklow tied on six points.

And Carlow have two home games remaining, against London and Leitrim. On form, they should overcome last week's blip.

Longford's season could hardly have begun with less promise. The weather forced the cancellation of their O'Byrne Cup defence (which they lost on a coin toss to Westmeath) and then their league opener in Waterford was also postponed.

When they did get going, they proceeded to lose to London for the first time - and at home too.

Things got better from there. Daniel Reynolds' winner snatched victory in Waterford, then they hockeyed an out-of-sorts Antrim. As it stands, they're on seven points as they head to Carrick to play Leitrim.

Wicklow-Tipperary collide in Aughrim this weekend with both sharing third place on six points.

The winner will be in the promotion shake-up, with Oisín McConville's side heading to the midlands to face Longford in what could be a winner-takes-all game.

If Tipp win, they'll be in a strong position, their final game coming at home to the perennially bottom-placed Waterford.

Michael Maher's London are on five points but head to Carlow this weekend. Antrim, after their season looked to be derailing in horrible fashion, have pulled themselves together with back-to-back wins over Leitrim and Wicklow.

They could reach eight points with games against London and Waterford to come but it's doubtful it'll be enough.

Leitrim are also on four points but lying second bottom with a poor score difference and tough games left to play. Waterford are cut adrift on zero points as yet.

The good news is that all look to have secured safety.

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