MATTERS ARISING: With three months to go, will US-bombarded Iran participate in 2026 World Cup?

Less than three months to the 2026 World Cup, the generational tension between the US-Israel allyship and Iran reached a devastating full-blown war on February 28. Israel, alongside the US, had described its initial air raid on Tehran as “preemptive strikes”, but the fire had begotten more fire, which has engulfed the majority of the Middle East, with global trade also melting losses.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader for 36 years, died under the rubble caused by some of the first waves of US-Israel strikes. In retaliatory raids, Iran launched missiles at every one of its neighbouring countries with ties to the US. The country also closed off the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for oil shipments from the oil-rich Middle East to the rest of the world.

As the escalating war touches every aspect, sports are not far from being its next casualty. The US is scheduled to co-host the 2026 World Cup with Canada and Mexico. Iran is one of the 48 teams qualified for the competition. Will Iran participate in the World Cup co-hosted by the country that is bombarding its infrastructure with endless missiles?

WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF THE US-ISRAEL WAR AGAINST IRAN?

Iran and Israel, and by extension the US, have been engaged in proxy skirmishes for decades. Iran-backed Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based resistance group, has continuously launched rockets at Israel from its base. Israel and Iran have also been at loggerheads over Gaza’s Hamas, which reportedly gets enormous donations from Tehran, while Tel Aviv view the entity as a terrorist group. There is also the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen who terrorise Western-affiliated ships along the Red Sea.

But at the heart of the latest bloodshed is Iran’s nuclear aspiration. Although Israel is among the nine countries in the world that are said to be armed with nuclear warheads, the country has insisted on scuttling Iran’s plan to develop one. In the noughties, Iran blamed Israel and the US elements for numerous setbacks to its nuclear plans. The US and Israel have maintained that Iran’s development of nuclear bombs will be the greatest threat to Israel’s existence, but Tehran claimed that its atomic ambition is mainly for civilian purposes.

The nuclear tussle reached a boiling point in June 2025 when a combined US-Israel air strike destroyed some of Iran’s nuclear facilities in a 12-day war.

Although nuclear talks between both parties stalled the hostility for a while, the attacks on February 28 were a fresh twist.

Iran says at least 555 people have been killed in the ongoing conflict, with many more injured. The US says it has lost six lives in the attacks. At least an additional 40 lives have been claimed across Israel and Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump has noted that the war could last for a little while.

WILL IRAN STILL PLAY AT THE WORLD CUP?

Iran was among the first countries to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The country finished top of Group A in the final round of the Asian qualifiers. Iran is drawn in Group G of the World Cup against Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand.

The Iranian national team is scheduled to play all its group games in Seattle and California in the US. Iran could even face the US national team in the second round of the competition if both sides finish second in their respective groups.

According to Iranian news outlets, Mehdi Taj, the country’s FA president, said it is “unlikely that we can look forward to the World Cup” given the current situation.

He, however, added that the decision will be made by the “sports chiefs”.

Almost four days since the bombardment started, the country is yet to issue a definitive stance on the issue.

Meanwhile, FIFA said it is “monitoring” the development in the ongoing war.

On Tuesday, Trump said he “really does not care” if Iran participates in the World Cup or not.

HAVE COUNTRIES PREVIOUSLY BOYCOTTED GLOBAL SPORTING EVENTS OVER WARS?

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If Iran eventually withdraws from the competition, it will not be the first time the country has boycotted an international sporting event due to war or political protest.

The country was among 60 nations that boycotted the 1980 Olympics in the USSR. The mass protest was over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Four years later, Iran also withdrew from the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles over the US’s occupation of the Middle East.

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Similarly, Nigeria led 27 other African countries in boycotting the 1976 Olympics in Canada over New Zealand’s failure to ban from participating. The African country was offended by the New Zealand rugby team’s tour of apartheid South Africa. They interpreted the tour as tacit support for the apartheid regime’s killing of over 300 black South Africans during the infamous Soweto riots.

WHICH TEAMS ARE POTENTIAL REPLACEMENTS?

Article 6.5 of FIFA’s 2026 World Cup regulations manual says, “If a Participating Member Association withdraws or a match cannot be played or is abandoned as a result of force majeure, the authorised FIFA organising body (including the Tournament Operation Centre) shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.”

Then Article 6.7 expands further that “If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary. FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.”

Basically, the final decision on the replacement mechanism solely rests with FIFA.

However, the world governing body is expected to mitigate the potential loss of revenue from match-day tickets and TV rights that Iran’s withdrawal could cause. A straight replacement with another Asian country will be the best solution.

Iraq is the sole Asian representative in the inter-confederational play-offs. The country is billed to play either Bolivia or Suriname for one of the last tickets to the World Cup. If Iran withdraws, Iraq seems like a natural replacement. The country qualifies directly and replaces Iran in Group G, while the winner of the tie between Bolivia and Suriname earns the play-off ticket.

IRAN’S FRIENDLY MATCH AGAINST NIGERIA UNSURE

The Super Eagles of Nigeria are scheduled to face Iran on March 27 in an international friendly. The match is part of a four-nation invitational tourney in Jordan.

Jordan is one of the neighbouring countries that Iran has attacked with retaliatory missiles.

The Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) remain mute about the possibility of the international friendlies being held.

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