'Champions League six pointers' not a concern for Villa - it's other games

On the final whistle against Leeds United, as Villa's recent stuttering home form continued, Aston Villa had allowed both Chelsea and Manchester United to gain six points on them over the last six games.

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Villa play both sides in their first two league fixtures of March in what can fairly be classed as Champions League six-pointers. After those matches, supporters will have a much clearer idea of how nervous the finish to the season will be. With Liverpool lurking ominously in sixth, the equation is simple: three from four will qualify.

Villa will not be daunted by those early March clashes. They have impressively taken 15 points from 21 against the so-called big six. Home wins against Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United have been their best performances at Villa Park.

The problems arise when they play anyone else.

Villa's average expected goals from open play across their last two home games, the 1-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion and the 1-1 draw with Leeds, was just 0.47. Even their most emphatic scoreline, the 4-0 win over AFC Bournemouth, tells a different story. Villa's expected goals from open play in that game was only 0.51, in a match where, if the numbers were to be believed, Bournemouth should have won 2-1.

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Despite positive results at home, both by the eye test and statistically, despite their undeniable character, Villa have often been underwhelming to watch.

Higher ticket prices do not help the atmosphere. Younger fans are being priced out, hospitality sections are growing, and the average age at Villa Park creeps closer to 50. Villa supporters wanting to stand on the Holte End against Leeds were faced with a £77 ticket. That inevitably brings expectation, reduces patience, and heightens the bitter reaction when results fail to mask performances.

At a time when Villa the football club need their fans fully aligned for the final push, Villa the business risk compromising the environment that could make the difference on the pitch.

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