There are far more college football jobs on the market than quality coaches

We have never seen a coaching carousel like this.

It’s not even Halloween yet, and already 12 FBS schools have axed their coaches, including blue bloods Penn State, Florida, and now LSU. A fourth, Florida State, could join the list by season’s end. And Stanford, UCLA, Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech have proud histories of their own. Wisconsin, Michigan State and perhaps Auburn could soon join the list.

Firing the coach was the easy part. Hiring the next one will be infinitely more challenging.

These schools just sold their homes. They’re ready to buy a new one. And they’re about to find out there are way more fixer-uppers than turnkey palaces.

There are far more schools on the market this cycle than there are qualified candidates. LSU, Penn State, Florida and, if it opens, Florida State, will be looking to lure an elite coach who can win them a national championship. But there aren’t four elite coaches just hanging out on Indeed.com. There might not even be one.

For example, it’s easy to imagine Florida and LSU getting into a tug-of-war over Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin come December. (Or January?) Kiffin has raised Ole Miss’s profile considerably in his six seasons there, leading the Rebels to three double-digit win seasons. And his 2025 team is currently No. 7 in the country.

As of today, though, Kiffin has not yet reached a College Football Playoff. He blew a golden opportunity last season with a first-round quarterback (Jaxson Dart) and a top-5 defense. Put him at a school with a 90,000-seat stadium in a more fertile recruiting state, and perhaps he leads their team to a national title. Or perhaps he goes 9-3 and loses at home to Kentucky.

Elsewhere, Clark Lea is becoming a coveted prospect by doing the unthinkable and turning Vanderbilt into a top-10 team. The Commodores stunned No. 1 Alabama last year and are 7-1 this year, currently holding the program’s highest ranking (No. 9) since 1937.

Lea, however, is also the same coach who went 9-27 in his first three seasons before plucking Diego Pavia and offensive coordinator Tim Beck from New Mexico State. That’s an awfully tiny sample size to decide whether to invest $10 million-plus a year in him.

Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz has done a nice job in Columbia. And by “nice,” we mean he’s gone 24-22 in the SEC. Florida once fired a guy, Jim McElwain, who went 16-8 in the SEC. LSU once fired Ed Orgeron, who went 31-17 in league play and won a national championship.

Meanwhile, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft is believed to have his sights set on Matt Rhule, his buddy from when both worked at Temple. Rhule has turned around three straight losing programs: Temple, Baylor and Nebraska (currently 6-2). Still, he’s also 2-23 against ranked teams and 0-11 vs. top-10 teams, which sounds an awful lot like the guy that Penn State just fired.

Finally, the current Group of 5 darling is Jon Sumrall, who is currently 38-10 across four seasons at Troy and Tulane. Sounds promising, but you truly never know which G5 coaches will win in the Power 4. See cautionary tales Tom Herman, Scott Frost and Luke Fickell.

Honestly, the closest thing to a sure thing in the entire profession right now may be Willie Fritz. Much like Indiana’s Curt Cignetti or Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, he’s won at one stop after another after another — Blinn Junior College (juco), Central Missouri (Division II), Sam Houston State (FCS), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), Tulane (American) and now Houston (Big 12), which has jumped from 4-8 to 7-1 in his second season.

But Fritz is 65 and entirely unflashy, which all but ensures someone will pass on him and hire a washed-up former NFL coach. Or Jimbo Fisher.

One coach who may fit the Cignetti/DeBoer profile: James Madison’s Bob Chesney. The 48-year-old Pennsylvania native has spent the past 15 years climbing the ladder from Division III (Salve Regina) to D-II (Assumption) to FCS (Holy Cross) to FBS (James Madison). His career winning percentage is .712. On paper, he’s an ideal candidate for Penn State.

He doesn’t, however, host a podcast or make weekly appearances on Pat McAfee’s show, so he might not get an interview.

All of which is to say we fear several of these schools, which paid $20 million-$50 million buyouts to fire their good-but-not-great coach, will wind up repeating the same disappointing cycle in three to five years.

That doesn’t mean Penn State should have hung on to James Franklin or LSU should have been more patient with Brian Kelly. Both coaches had exhausted all remaining confidence in them. Both schools, as well as all the others already on the market, are justified in aiming higher.

All their ADs need to do now is win the hiring lottery.

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