Serve, return, and backhand errors: Inside the tactics behind the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner French Open final

On paper, this was the final destined to happen. Yet it feels long overdue. A combination picture shows Spain's Carlos Alcaraz and Italy's Jannik Sinner ahead of the French Open men's final(REUTERS)

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz have finally taken their rivalry to the highest stage in Grand Slam tennis. Dubbed the Djokovic vs Nadal of their generation, the two now meet in a major final for the first time in their 11-match history. Both players have never lost a final – Alcaraz stands at 4-0, Sinner at 3-0. And while the Spaniard comes in with a four-match winning streak over the Italian, including a recent triumph in the Rome final, the real story goes far deeper.

Alcaraz enters Sunday’s showdown riding a 17-match win streak, with title runs in Barcelona and Rome, aiming to defend his Roland Garros crown. Sinner, meanwhile, returned to competition on home soil after a brief injury layoff and is into his maiden French Open final, having outplayed Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the semis.

Alcaraz vs Sinner – Head-to-head

The two have clashed 11 times since their first meeting at the 2021 Paris Masters. Alcaraz leads the rivalry 7-4, including four straight wins since the 2024 Miami Open semifinal. He also holds a 2-1 edge in Grand Slam encounters — their most recent Slam battle was last year’s French Open semifinal, where an injured Sinner still managed to stretch Alcaraz to five sets. On clay, the Spaniard again leads 2-1 following his recent Rome victory.

Where will the final be decided?

Sinner has come a long way since their Roland Garros duel last year, and even made remarkable tactical tweaks following his Rome loss just weeks ago. One key change has been his return stance against first serves — now more side-on and explosive, especially on the forehand side. That adjustment helped him break Djokovic three times, despite the Serb landing 71% of his first serves.

That return could prove critical against Alcaraz, who often targets the forehand on pressure points. According to ESPN data, Sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz in matches where he wins at least 37% of points on the Spaniard’s serve — and has crossed that mark only once in their last four encounters.

For Alcaraz, breaking down Sinner’s defense will be vital. While opponents have managed to hit winners on just 15% of Sinner’s points in this tournament, Alcaraz has surpassed 22% in each of their last three meetings.

Both players wield world-class forehands. The one who makes fewer backhand errors may ultimately tip the balance.

Prediction: As Bastien Fachan noted on X, Alcaraz will be the exact same age as Rafael Nadal was when he lifted his fifth French Open title. History may just rhyme again.

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